Producers are responding to higher crude oil prices, albeit slowly. East Daley Analytics’ updated survey of Permian Basin operators points to 3.2% growth in oil production in 2026, or a gain of ~217 Mb/d. The results from 1Q26 earnings are up from 2.7% growth in our post-4Q25 earnings survey.
In Energy Data Studio, we estimate Permian oil production increases from an average of 6.82 MMb/d in 2025 to ~7.05 MMb/d in 2026.
ExxonMobil (XOM) continues to be the growth engine in the basin. XOM expects to grow its Permian oil production by ~11.0% in 2026, adding 108 Mb/d Y-o-Y. That represents about 44% of the basin-wide increase captured in our survey. Exxon is also the most active operator in the Permian, running 34 rigs in late April, including 26 Midland rigs and 8 Delaware rigs (see chart above).
The updated guidance shows a broad contribution from the next tier of producers. We model Chevron (CVX) at 2.0% growth, adding ~5 Mb/d, while Diamondback (FANG) raised its Permian growth guidance to 4.5% from 2.5%, or ~27 Mb/d. We expect EOG Resources (EOG) and Permian Resources (PR) to increase their 2026 production by 4.0%. Matador Resources (MTDR) also bumped its guidance to 3.5% growth from 2.5%.
Several Permian operators have merged since our last survey. Devon Energy (DVN) and Coterra Energy completed their merger on May 7. The producers, now operating as Devon, will report combined guidance in mid-June. In the meantime, DVN reported 1Q26 oil production on the top end of its previous guidance, prompting us to raise the outlook for the merged E&P to 2% Permian growth.
SM Energy (SM) and Civitas Resources completed their merger in January 2026 under the ‘SM’ ticker, and 1Q26 production came in higher than the guidance midpoint. The combined producer is guiding to 2% growth in 2026, including 11 months of Civitas contributions.
Crescent Energy (CRGY) acquired Vital Energy in December 2025; however, CRGY does not consider the Permian as one of its key basins and has reduced its drilling program to just 2 rigs in the Midland and 3 in the Delaware. East Daley doesn’t expect Crescent’s production to increase in 2026 based on its guidance.
Despite the higher growth estimate, the broader message has not changed: Permian growth is positive, but still highly concentrated in the hands of a few companies. Higher WTI prices could continue to move production expectations at the margin, but Permian operators are likely to remain disciplined until new gas pipelines create more room for growth in the back half of 2026. – Emily Cecchini and Keland Rumsey Tickers: CRGY, CVX, DVN, EOG, MTDR, PR, SM, XOM.
Download Part II of East Daley’s Permian Basin White Paper Series
The Permian Basin’s next big buildout is already taking shape, but this time the driver isn’t crude oil. In The Permian Basin at a Crossroads: Why This Pipeline Boom is Different, East Daley Analytics’ latest white paper reveals how gas demand from AI data centers, utilities and LNG exports is rewriting the midstream playbook in the leading US basin. Over 10 Bcf/d of new capacity and $12 billion in investments are reshaping flows, turning the Permian into a gas powerhouse even as rigs decline. Read Part II: Why This Pipeline Boom is Different
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