Rigs: The total US rig count remained flat at 537 for the week of April 25.
Infrastructure: Geopolitical risks are accelerating demand for US crude exports, but future growth hinges on expanding offshore infrastructure to relieve Gulf Coast bottlenecks.
Supply & Demand: The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, decreased 1.1% for the April 21 week across liquids-focused basins.
Rigs:
The total US rig count held flat at 537 rigs for the week of April 25. Liquids-driven basins increased W-o-W to 411 from 409.
- Anadarko (+4):
- Mewbourne Oil (+2)
- Reign Operating (+1)
- Patterson Energy (+1)
- Bakken (+1): TXO Partners
- Eagle Ford (-1): Magnolia Oil & Gas
- Powder River (-1): Ballard Petroleum
- Uinta (-1): Koda Resources
Infrastructure:
Geopolitical disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and heightened risk through the Strait of Hormuz are doing more than lifting crude prices – they are accelerating a structural shift in global trade flows that favors US Gulf Coast exports. For buyers seeking to diversify away from Middle East supply chains, US barrels offer both reliability and scale. The key question is no longer whether the US can supply incremental crude, but whether the industry can efficiently move those barrels onto the water.
That distinction brings renewed focus to a set of offshore export projects that have languished for several years: Enterprise Products’ (EPD) SPOT, Energy Transfer’s (ET) Blue Marlin, Sentinel Midstream’s Texas Gulf Link, and the Phillips 66/Trafigura Bluewater project. Each is designed to solve the same structural issue: the limited ability to fully load very large crude carriers (VLCCs) along the Gulf Coast.
Today, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) is the only US facility capable of directly loading a VLCC to capacity. Elsewhere, export volumes rely on a combination of partial loadings at docks and offshore lightering to top off vessels. The system has worked at current export levels, but it creates incremental costs, scheduling complexity and congestion risk. As exports push higher, these inefficiencies increasingly define the marginal cost of moving US crude to global markets.
We estimate the system still has roughly 1–2 MMb/d of export headroom, but capturing that capacity becomes progressively more difficult without improvements in loading efficiency. In practical terms, the next tranche of export growth is less about upstream production and more about reducing friction at the dock. Offshore deepwater ports directly address this constraint by enabling VLCCs to fully load in a single operation while bypassing congested ship channels.
All these projects have struggled to reach a final investment decision (FID). In 2023, a weaker Permian growth outlook and limited shipper commitments undermined commercial support across the board. That backdrop is now shifting. Higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical risk are beginning to reframe offshore capacity as a necessity rather than optionality.
Within this group, SPOT maintains a first-mover advantage due to its regulatory progress. However, Enterprise did not reference the offshore terminal project during its latest 1Q26 earnings call. The company highlighted benefits from volumes released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, averaging 70 MMbbl per month across its docks in 1Q26. EPD said it is scheduled to load more than 88 MMbbl in April.
Texas Gulf Link has advanced following recent permitting approvals, securing a license on Feb. 3 to own, construct and operate a deepwater port for US crude oil exports. Blue Marlin and Bluewater offer different paths to market, with an emphasis on leveraging existing infrastructure and integrating with trading and refining networks. Ultimately, differentiation across these projects will come down to execution and the ability to secure long-term volume commitments.
The broader takeaway is that US crude exports are entering a new phase where logistics — not supply — sets the pace of growth. If current trade flow shifts prove durable, offshore export infrastructure will move from a deferred investment to a critical component of the Gulf Coast system.
Put simply, the next barrel of US crude is available, but getting it onto a fully loaded VLCC efficiently is becoming the real constraint.
Supply & Demand:
The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, decreased 1.1% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins.
Volumes were mixed, with the Barnett (-18.7%) and Rockies basins (-2.7%) seeing the most significant decreases. The Gulf of America (-0.7%) Anadarko (-1%), and Eagle Ford (-1.4%) samples also declined on the week. The Permian (+2%) and Arkoma (+0.4%) slightly increased. Basin-level movements largely offset one another, leaving overall volumes relatively steady. The Rockies and the Gulf of America have a high correlation between gas volumes and crude oil volumes, whereas the Permian and Eagle Ford basins correlation is less than 45%.
As of May 4, 136.5 Mb/d of refining capacity is offline for maintenance. BP’s Whiting refinery has 75 Mb/d of capacity offline due to planned maintenance, and the Par Montana refinery contributed 61.5 Mb/d of refinery outages, also due to scheduled maintenance. Both are scheduled to be back up and running the second week of May.
Vessel traffic monitored by East Daley along the Gulf Coast decreased W-o-W. A total of 25 vessels were loaded for the week ending May 2. East Daley expects this figure to continue rising as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains under blockade.