Infrastructure: The Repauno Phase 2 expansion remains on track to start in early 2027, increasing East Coast LPG export capacity and providing another outlet for Northeast NGL production.
New Product: East Daley has added five new tabs to the NGL Purity Product Forecast, including prebuilt basin-level area charts, waterfall charts, annual exit and annual average tables, and a dedicated ethane rejection tab. Clients can access the updated Excel file here: https://portal.eastdaley.com/canvas/ngl-purity-product. For additional detail, see the section below or contact Julian or Sam using the contact information at the end of this newsletter.
Exports: NGL exports decreased 25.3% W-o-W for the week ending Aug. 28, with both LPG and ethane contributing to the decline.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased to 602 the week of Sept. 12. Rigs in liquids-driven basins decreased 7 rigs W-o-W.
Infrastructure:
The Repauno terminal’s Phase 2 expansion is on track to begin operations in early 2027, according to sponsor FTAI Infrastructure (FIP). The project will materially increase East Coast LPG export capacity and provide another outlet for growing Northeast NGL production, although East Daley expects utilization to ramp in stages rather than immediately reach full capacity.
FTAI is a relatively small infrastructure company with assets spanning railroads and energy terminals, including the Jefferson Terminal in Beaumont, TX and the Repauno Port & Rail Terminal in southern New Jersey. The Repauno expansion is led by Hank Alexander, who previously served as Senior Vice President of Commercial Operations at Energy Transfer (ET).
Management has described Repauno as “the only available gateway on the East Coast that has meaningful room for expansion,” a view East Daley largely shares.
Today, Repauno has ~24 Mb/d of LPG export capacity, primarily handling butane. The 1,600-acre site is supported by a 158 Mbbl underground LPG storage cavern. Phase 2 will add a new 630 Mbbl cryogenic storage tank and 72 Mb/d of incremental export capacity, bringing total capacity to 96 Mb/d.
The project was originally expected to enter service in 4Q26, according to an April 2025 Repauno bond filing. East Daley has moved the expected startup to 1Q27 following FIP’s latest 2Q26 earnings commentary; management guided to operations starting in 2027.
The bigger question is how quickly the new capacity fills.
FIP’s latest investor materials suggest Phase 2 will begin operations at relatively high utilization. East Daley sees a more gradual ramp. Known contracted volumes imply ~41 Mb/d of incremental demand beginning in January 2027, including one 20 Mb/d contract that East Daley believes is tied to Range Resources (RRC), plus another 21 Mb/d commitment.
That represents a substantial initial step up in throughput, but still leaves roughly 31 Mb/d of the Phase 2 expansion unfilled.
The project is backed by an additional 30 Mb/d contract that is scheduled to begin in January 2029. East Daley therefore does not expect Repauno to approach full Phase 2 utilization until 2029, when contracted commitments would increase to roughly 71 Mb/d of incremental volumes.
The distinction matters for Northeast NGL balances. Repauno provides a strategically important relief valve for growing Appalachian liquids production, giving producers another path to waterborne markets outside of ET’s Marcus Hook terminal and the Gulf Coast export outlets. However, the contracted ramp suggests the market may need another two years of Northeast supply growth before the full value of the expansion is realized.
New Product:
East Daley has added five new tabs to the NGL Purity Product Forecast, our NGL production model, making it easier to analyze historical trends and forecasted changes across the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins. The new tabs include:
- Ethane Rejection: A prebuilt workflow showing historical and forecasted ethane rejection across the Lower 48.
- Area Charts: Prebuilt charts showing purity product production and ethane recovery vs rejection. Views are available for the total US, PADD, basin and sub-basin levels.
- Waterfall Charts: Prebuilt waterfall charts highlighting changes in supply by purity product across the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins (see figure below).
- NGL Annual Exits: A table showing annual exit production by NGL purity product for the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins, including Y-o-Y changes in both percentage and volume.
To access these new features, download the latest NGL Purity Product file at the link below. The five new tabs are located on the far right side of the workbook.
https://portal.eastdaley.com/canvas/ngl-purity-product
Exports:
NGL exports increased 14.7% W-o-W for the week ending Sept. 11, as a 90.1% surge in ethane exports outweighed a modest 2.6% increase in LPG exports.
LPG export growth was primarily driven by EPD Neches River (+128%) and EPD EHT (+20%). These gains more than offset declines across all other terminals, resulting in a 2.6% W‑o‑W increase in total LPG exports.
On the ethane side, exports from EPD Neches River declined 70.7%, while volumes across each of the other terminals increased by more than 80%. As a result, total ethane exports rose 90.1% W‑o‑W.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased to 602 the week of Sept. 12. Liquids-driven basins declined to 4666, down 2 rigs W-o-W.
- Anadarko (+1): Validus Energy
- Bakken (-1): Murex
- Uinta (-1): Anschutz
- Permian (-6):
- Midland (-3): Occidental, Kinder Morgan and Amtex Energy
- Delaware (-3): Exxon, TRP and Riley Exploration
