Ethane has become one of the most geopolitically important commodities in the global energy trade. The United States is effectively the world’s only major ethane exporter, while China remains the largest driver of incremental demand. That dynamic has pushed ethane into the center of geopolitical and energy-security discussions as global petrochemical supply chains increasingly depend on US NGL infrastructure.
The strategic importance of the trade has only grown following disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure. US ethane exports reached a record high in February, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, and East Daley Analytics expects another record month in March, with exports to average nearly 776 Mb/d. In the NGL Hub Model, we expect exports to normalize modestly in April and May, primarily due to constraints on vessel availability and Panama Canal delays rather than weakening demand fundamentals.
Midstream operators are signaling growing confidence in the long-term outlook. Enterprise Products (EPD) and Energy Transfer (ET) both highlighted strong demand trends during 1Q26 earnings discussions. ET also hinted at potential future expansion opportunities within its ethane export business. East Daley believes the Lake Charles LNG footprint remains a logical long-term expansion target given its strategic Gulf Coast positioning and existing infrastructure connectivity. Meanwhile, EPD CEO Jim Teague noted he was surprised by the global “appetite” for ethane demand.
The next phase of export growth could come down to shipping capacity.
According to East Daley research, 43 ethane-capable vessels — including very large ethane carriers (VLECs), ultra-large ethane carriers (ULECs) and liquefied ethylene gas carriers (LEGs) — are scheduled for delivery between 2026 and 2027, with the majority arriving in 2027 (see chart below).
That delivery schedule is a critical signal for future export growth. Infrastructure on the US Gulf Coast is already being positioned for higher volumes, with EPD stating that the combined 300 Mb/d capacity at Neches River Phases 1 and 2 is fully contracted under long-term agreements.
The implication is clear: Vessel deliveries are becoming the gating factor for global ethane trade growth. East Daley expects the pace of ethane export expansion to accelerate materially in 2027 as new shipping capacity enters service and global petrochemical consumers continue diversifying feedstock supply chains around advantaged US ethane. – Julian Renton Tickers: EPD, ET.
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