Executive Summary:
Rigs: The total US rig count held steady during the week of Jan. 24 at 522 rigs.
Infrastructure: Winter Storm Fern pushed through the Lower 48 the last week of January, cutting into Permian crude oil production.
Supply & Demand: The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, increased 1.9% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins.
Rigs:
The total US rig count held steady during the week of Jan. 24 at 522. Liquids-driven basins increased by 2 rigs W-o-W, from 393 to 395.
- Permian:
- Midland (+1): Civitas Resources
- Delaware (-1): Civitas Resources
- Anadarko (+1): Continental Resources
- Eagle Ford (+1): Lewis
Infrastructure:
Winter Storm Fern, one of the strongest Arctic fronts in decades, pushed through the Lower 48 the last week of January and cut into hydrocarbon production, including some crude supply in the Permian Basin.
Pipeline samples show that 7.4 Bcf/d of natural gas remained offline as of last Thursday (Jan. 29) due to impairments from Fern (see table). These are conservative estimates, since our samples don’t fully capture Lower 48 gas production.
Based on the gas samples in the Permian Basin, East Daley estimates the curtailments will impair monthly crude oil production by ~420 Mb/d (-6.2%). We now estimate 6.41 MMb/d of oil production from the basin in January vs 6.83 MMb/d previously.
The impacts to crude oil production appear mixed compared to other recent storms. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 was more disruptive, causing a nearly 16% M-o-M drop in Permian oil production. By contrast, winter storms Elliott and Heather were less severe weather events and had less impact on operations. The M-o-M crude production dip from Elliott and Heather were only -0.9% and -0.4%, respectively (see figure).
While a hit to Permian output, the impacts from Fern were likely softened thanks to new state regulations. Following Winter Storm Uri, Texas implemented regulations requiring operators to winterize systems and equipment to avoid more drastic supply losses.
For perspective, East Daley estimates gas supply decreased 7% M-o-M in the Permian in January 2026, compared to a 15% M-o-M drop in Feb ’21 from Uri. The reduced impact during this storm suggests more resiliency from winterization upgrades deployed during the past five years.
Supply and Demand
The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, increased 1.9% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins. This increase follows a large decline week due to freeze-offs caused by Winter Storm Fern across the US.
Large weekly rebounds occurred in the Anadarko (+10%), Barnett (+12%), Arkoma (+8.5%) and Williston (+11.1%) basins. The Rockies also saw an increase of 2.1%. Samples in other basins decreased W-o-W. The most notable decline was from the Permian, which further dropped 6.5% due to the cold weather. The Rockies and the Gulf of America have a high correlation between gas volumes and crude oil volumes, whereas the Permian and Eagle Ford basins correlation is less than 45%.
As of Feb. 3, there is currently ~418 Mb/d of refining capacity offline for non-planned maintenance due to the winter storm shutting down refineries. The most affected operator is Phillips 66 with ~129 Mb/d offline at its Borger and Ponca City refineries.
Vessel traffic monitored by EDA along the Gulf Coast remained the same W-o-W. There were 25 vessels loaded for the week ending Jan. 31. The trend is reversing downward after five weeks of increases.
Presented by ARBO
Tariffs:
Gray Oak Pipeline, LLC: Certain available capacity discounts were increased.
Magellan Pipeline Company, L.P.: The tariffs were revised to add a new product and to update the product grade document to be consistent with ONEOK’s product grade documents.
The above information is provided by ARBO’s Oil Pipeline Tariff Monitor. For more information on regulatory proceedings or tariff rates, please contact please contact Corey Brill via email at [email protected] or phone at 202-505-5296. https://www.goarbo.com/