Executive Summary: Infrastructure: Targa (TRG) is the latest company to announce new NGL infrastructure projects to handle supply growth from the Permian Basin. Rigs: The total rig count increased by 8 for the week of February 2 to 550 rigs. Flows: US pipeline samples declined 0.6 Bcf/d for the February 16 week to 69.8 Bcf/d, dragged lower by a major winter storm. Calendar: Several NGL-heavy earnings calls are next week including OKE, KNTK and WES.
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Infrastructure:
- Between now and 2029, a significant amount of infrastructure is being built to handle the processing, transportation, fractionation and distribution of NGLs to market. Permian-related NGL infrastructure under development includes:
- 75 Bcf/d of processing plant capacity;
- 35 MMb/d of NGL pipeline egress;
- 2 MMb/d of fractionation capacity;
- 1 MMb/d of LPG export capacity; and
- At least 0.3 MMb/d of ethane export capacity
- The latest expansions come from Targa Resources (TRGP). On its 4Q24 earnings call yesterday, TRGP announced a new Train 12 fractionator (+150 Mb/d), an LPG expansion at Galena Park (+125 Mb/d), and a 100-mile NGL pipe that will extend into the Delaware Basin (highlighted in blue text in the below table). All project- and asset-level data is available in East Daley’s NGL product suite.
- Not all Permian producers will contribute equally to filling the new infrastructure. Some producers like ConocoPhillips (COP) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are guiding to moderate 3% growth from 2024 to ’25 (avg to avg). Others like Matador Resources (MTDR), Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) plan to grow at much faster clips Y-o-Y, up 20%, 9.5%, and 7.5%, respectively. EDA will compare Permian producer guidance against our NGL forecast to improve visibility into supply for the rest of ’25 and implications for storage, as reflected in our Ethane and Propane Supply & Demand
Rigs:
The total US rig count increased by 8 during the week of February 2 to 550. Liquids-driven basins increased by 5 W-o-W to 460.
- Anadarko (+3): Red Rocks Oil & Gas Operating, J.W. Resources Inc, Wavetech Helium Inc.
- Permian (+2):
- Delaware (+1): Admiral Permian Resources
- Midland (+1): Permian Resources, LLC
- Bakken (+1): Continental Resources
- DJ (-1): Civitas Resources
Flows:
US pipeline samples declined 640 MMcf/d (-0.6%) for the February 16 week to average 69.86 Bcf/d. A major winter storm moved through the Rockies and Central US over the week, bringing bitterly cold temperatures that likely curtailed some flows. Samples were lower W-o-W in the Bakken (-2.5%), DJ (-4.3%), Powder River (-4.7%) and Anadarko (-6.7%) basins. Haynesville producers bucked the down trend and grew samples 1.5% W-o-W.
Waha gas prices are likely to face pressure in the last week of February when the El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline (EPNG) conducts maintenance work. EPNG plans to take over 600 MMcf/d of capacity offline at the North Mainline compressor station February 24-26 and over 700 MMcf/d at the Cornudas station February 25-28, according to a schedule posted on the pipeline’s bulletin board.
*W-o-W change is for the two most recent weeks
Data Points & Product Release Calendar:
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