The Daley Note: October 25, 2022
Recent pipeline samples confirm the supply growth East Daley has been anticipating from the Haynesville in 4Q21. Williams (WMB) has benefited the most of late, but we expect broad gains for midstream companies serving producers in the ArkLaTex.
We forecast Haynesville natural gas volumes to ramp ~430 MMcf/d from September to December. Our basin supply model, highlighted in our monthly US Macro and ArkLaTex Supply and Demand Forecast reports, has been bullish on the Haynesville this year due to higher prices and rising rigs in the ArkLaTex. Pipe samples from East Texas and northern Louisiana had been flat for the past few months, as has EIA state production data. But receipts have jumped in the October pipe samples we track, up ~200 MMcf/d since September, indicating the volumes we’ve been forecasting are starting to show up.
East Daley is in the News. Click here to read a new Natural Gas Intelligence article highlighting East Daley's natural gas market perspective. Rob Wilson, EDA Vice President of Analytics, warned the LDC Gulf Coast Energy Forum of oversupply on the horizon. "By the end of next year, East Daley projects there could be more than 5 Bcf/d in added natural gas production, flooding domestic markets," NGI wrote.
Driving this ramp into October is the WMB - Magnolia gathering system, which has been delivering 248 MMcf/d more onto local pipelines. This ramp likely coincides with start-up of the 500 MMcf/d Spring Ridge gathering expansion. WMB had targeted an in-service of 3Q22 for the Spring Ridge expansion.
In our Midstream Activity Tracker, East Daley has allocated ~8 rigs to the Magnolia system in September and October. Based on this activity, we expect supply to continue growing into 2023. We forecast WMB gathered volumes to increase by 260 MMcf/d from September to December this year, then grow an additional 900 MMcf/d through 2023 (exit to exit). This ramp in volumes on the Magnolia system, combined with the Trace Midstream acquisition, increase 2023 EBITDA by ~$200 million in our Williams Blueprint Financial Model.
East Daley calls out volume jumps on Magnolia and other systems across the Haynesville every month in our ArkLaTex Supply and Demand basin report. Through our industry-leading midstream allocation model, we track rigs and forecast supply on every major G&P system in the Haynesville shale. We plan to release our updated ArkLaTex Supply and Demand forecast next week; please reach our for additional information. – Zack Van Everen Tickers: WMB.
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Join East Daley in Houston at our Spotlight Happy Hour on November 9 as we discuss the new Targa Resources Spotlight Report and meet the teams from RBN Energy and East Daley. The event will follow the Targa Resources Spotlight Report being released on November 2, and the Spotlight Live Session webinar being held on November 7 at 10:30 AM CT online. You will have the opportunity to ask us questions about the Spotlight Report and Live Session, plus network with some of the energy industry’s best and brightest. Learn more on East Daley's Events page.
3Q22 Earnings Previews Now Available
East Daley has published a complete group of 3Q22 Earnings Previews and Blueprint Financial Models for midstream companies within our coverage. Quarterly Earnings Previews and Blueprints are now available for Antero Midstream (AM), Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Enbridge (ENB), EnLink Midstream (ENLC), Enterprise Products (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), Equitrans Midstream (ETRN), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Kinetik Holdings (KNTK), Magellan Midstream (MMP), MPLX (MPLX), ONEOK (OKE), Plains All American (PAA), Summit Midstream (SMLP), Targa Resources (TRGP), TC Pipelines (TRP), Western Midstream (WES) and Williams (WMB).
Our Earnings Previews include quarterly earnings forecasts compared to Street consensus, a detailed list of the top assets that will impact the quarter, analysis of near- and long-term risks to future earnings, along with forecasts for Adj. EBITDA by segments. Please log in to access these reports.
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