East Daley Analytics is watching the Texas natural gas market closely for signs of activity from Matterhorn Express Pipeline. Whitewater Midstream could begin service on the new 2.5 Bcf/d pipe as early as July, as we assume in our Macro and regional models.
EDA forecasts ~500 MMcf/d of linefill volumes in July ’24 from Matterhorn, with flows ramping to the full 2.5 Bcf/d by September ‘24. Our outlook is based on a construction schedule published in September ‘22 by Gulf Companies, the construction manager for the Matterhorn project, targeting an in-service date in July ‘24.
Permian flows have saturated the South Texas market in recent years, and Matterhorn will continue this trend. EDA breaks down the dynamic in the Houston Ship Channel Supply & Demand Report. Pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin to South Texas increases to 12 Bcf/d in 3Q24 after Matterhorn comes online, more than triple capacity of just 3.4 Bcf/d in early 2019.
As this new Permian supply floods into South Texas, we expect to see downward pressure on Houston Ship Channel basis. Demand growth in the region is limited in 2024, so we expect additional inbound flows from the Permian to displace inbound supply from the Carthage market.
In the Houston Ship Channel Report, we reduce flows from Carthage to Houston by 2-3 Bcf/d from 2024-28 to balance the South Texas market, indicating Houston will trade at a discount to Henry Hub. Later, we expect Carthage to provide swing supply in 2029 and 2030 as LNG demand in South Texas comes online and additional pipeline capacity from Texas to Louisiana is available to support LNG projects at the TX/LA border.
See our Houston Ship Channel Supply & Demand Report for more information. An interactive dashboard is coming soon on Energy Data Studio – see the figure for an early peek. – Oren Pilant.
Propane Supply and Demand Report and Data Set: Coming Soon
Propane Supply and Demand is a Data File & Report that includes historical and forecasted supply and demand components for propane including gas plant propane production, refinery propane production, domestic demand from steam crackers and other consumption, plus propane (LPG) exports. Learn more about the Propane Supply and Demand Report and Data Set.
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