Executive Summary:
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased during the week of Aug 31 to 514.
Infrastructure: Plains to Sell US NGL Assets, Focus on Crude
Supply & Demand: The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, decreased 1.6% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased during the week of Aug 31 to 514. Liquids-driven basins decreased 12 rigs W-o-W from 409 to 397.
- Permian:
- Midland (-6): Vital Energy INC, Exxon, Diamondback Energy, Chevron Corporation
- Delaware (-4): Coterra Energy INC, Continental Resources
- Bakken (-2): Continental Resources, Chord Energy
- Powder River (-1): EOG Resources, INC
- Uinta (-1): Uinta Wax Operating, LLC
- Anadarko (+1): M & M Exploration CO
- Eagle Ford (+1): Redhawk Operating, LLC
Infrastructure:
Plains All American (PAA) aims to become a crude oil midstream pure play, but a motley assortment of NGL assets stand in the way. After selling its Canadian NGL business, the company intends to shop its remaining US NGL portfolio, including a stake in White Cliffs Pipeline.
In June, Plains reached a deal to sell its entire Canadian NGL business to Keyera for ~$3.75B. The sale will add $3B to PAA’s balance sheet and provide it with ample dry powder to pursue other bolt-on acquisitions. Following the announcement, PAA executives said they intend to sell the remaining US NGL assets over the next several years.
PAA’s US NGL portfolio is relatively modest, yet also widely dispersed (see map). Those assets include the Shafter Lake LPG Terminal and San Pedro Butane Storage facility in California, Bumstead LPG Storage in Arizona, Tampa LPG in Florida, a 36% equity stake in White Cliffs Pipeline, plus a scattering of other terminals and facilities across the Lower 48.
The White Cliffs Pipeline stake is the largest in the portfolio and would likely be the most sought-after asset. White Cliffs includes a crude and NGL pipeline running from Platteville, CO to Cushing, OK. The NGL pipeline serves as a key Y‑grade outlet from the Denver‑Julesburg (DJ) and other Rockies basins and connects directly to Southern Hills Pipeline, owned by Phillips 66 (PSX). The two pipes together provide shippers a direct route to the Mont Belvieu hub.
White Cliffs has struggled post-pandemic to fill both its crude and NGL pipes. We model average throughput on the NGL pipeline of ~60 Mb/d in 2Q25, and the crude pipeline had average throughput of ~90 Mb/d. Both are below their respective capacities, according to East Daley’s Energy Data Studio. Despite White Cliff’s challenges, the asset could present substantial synergies for the right buyer.
Phillips 66 is one likely candidate. PSX could build upon its wellhead‑to‑water strategy by integrating PAA’s stake into its existing asset footprint in the DJ and Midcontinent region. With the White Cliffs stake, PSX could steer more NGL volumes onto Southern Hills Pipeline and enhance the market access for producers on its DJ G&P system to its Gulf Coast fractionators. This would also complement PSX’s existing interest in the Wattenberg and Front Range pipelines, both of which are substantial Y-grade egress routes out of the DJ. The crude pipeline could also give PSX’s Midcontinent refineries greater access to DJ volumes.
Recent M&A activity reflects valuations of about 7–10× EBITDA for pipeline assets. Because White Cliffs operates in a competitive region with a muted growth outlook, East Daley believes a multiple on the lower end of this range is appropriate. This valuation reflects the asset’s strategic value to PSX while acknowledging its limited growth prospects and competitive pressures.
For PAA, monetizing the White Plains stake would free up cash that could be redeployed into other assets with higher synergistic potential. The company is clearly on the hunt, as reflected in PAA’s recent $1.57B investment in EPIC Crude.
Supply and Demand
The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, decreased 1.6% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins. Samples increased 1% in the Barnett and 0.6% in the Eagle Ford. The increases were offset by decreases of 15.2% in the Arkoma and 4.4% in the Gulf of America. The Rockies and the Gulf of America have a high correlation between gas volumes and crude oil volumes, whereas the Permian and Eagle Ford basins correlation is less than 45%.
As of September 15th, there is currently ~252 Mb/d of refining capacity offline, including downtime for planned and unplanned maintenance. The Total Port Arthur Refinery accounts for 151.25 Mb/d capacity offline due to planned maintenance lasting till 10/21/2025.
Vessel traffic monitored by EDA along the Gulf Coast significantly increased W-o-W. There were 33 vessels loaded for the week ending September 13th and 21 the prior week.
Regulatory and Tariffs:
Presented by ARBO
Tariffs:
Gray Oak Pipeline, LLC: Certain available capacity discounts were increased.
Magellan Pipeline Company, L.P.: The tariffs were revised to add a new product and to update the product grade document to be consistent with ONEOK’s product grade documents.
The above information is provided by ARBO’s Oil Pipeline Tariff Monitor. For more information on regulatory proceedings or tariff rates, please contact please contact Corey Brill via email at [email protected] or phone at 202-505-5296. https://www.goarbo.com/