Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: East Daley estimates up to 205 Mb/d of additional rejection capacity is available from several producing regions.
Exports: Total US NGL exports declined by 11.9% week-over-week, driven by a sharp pullback in LPG volumes. However, this was partially offset by a significant rebound in ethane exports.
Rigs: The US rig count decreased during the week of June 8 to 524.
Flows: US natural gas volumes averaged 70.1 Bcf/d in pipeline samples for the week ending June 22, up 0.9% from 69.5 Bcf/d the previous week.
Calendar: Ethane & Propane S/D Reports – 6/27
Infrastructure: Export restrictions to China are placing mounting pressure on US ethane balances, leading market participants to ask how much supply can be curtailed through rejection, and where. East Daley estimates up to 210 Mb/d of additional rejection capacity is available from several producing regions, led by flexible Midcontinent and Rockies processing systems. 
Anadarko Basin: The Anadarko is one of the most flexible regions for ethane recovery and rejection. Historically, ethane supply has shifted dramatically, from ~300 Mb/d in October 2023 to just 150 Mb/d by January ’24, demonstrating the region’s ability to respond quickly to changes in the frac spread. As of June ‘25, ethane supply has stabilized near 225 Mb/d. East Daley estimates the basin can blend ~75 Mb/d of additional ethane into the gas stream under current market conditions.
Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin: The DJ exhibits similar characteristics to the Anadarko, with ethane supply closely tied to economic recoverability. Between December 2024 and January 2025, ethane recovery dropped from roughly 140 Mb/d to 80 Mb/d. Recovery has since rebounded to ~125 Mb/d. Based on historical behavior and plant capabilities, East Daley estimates the DJ could reject an additional 45 Mb/d if spreads weaken further.
Other Rockies (Piceance, Green River, Uinta, Powder River): Outside the DJ, several smaller basins in the Rockies also offer flexibility. We estimate a combined 40 Mb/d of rejection capacity from these areas. This comes primarily from the Piceance (15 Mb/d) and Green River (20 Mb/d), plus modest potential from the Uinta and Powder River basins. While smaller in aggregate, these volumes can still impact regional gas and NGL balances.
Northeast: Ethane markets in the Northeast are less affected by Chinese export restrictions, as most cargoes from Marcus Hook are sent to Europe. However, a recent furnace explosion at Shell’s Monaca cracker is likely to suppress local demand. To mitigate the impact, Enterprise Products (EPD) operates a re-blending facility in Natchitoches, LA connected to the ATEX Pipeline. This facility can blend up to 50 Mb/d of purity ethane into the Gulf Coast gas stream, effectively enabling rejection at a location where gas prices are more favorable. This option provides Northeast shippers a unique economic hedge when local ethane pricing deteriorates.
Permian Basin: In contrast to other regions, the Permian Basin is unlikely to contribute materially to incremental ethane rejection. Several factors limit rejection incentives. First, gas takeaway from the Permian remains constrained, leading to depressed Waha prices that do not support rejected volumes. Second, ~75% of gas processing in the basin is controlled by large integrated midstream operators such as Energy Transfer (ET) and EPD. These companies benefit by capturing ethane value downstream through owned transportation, fractionation, storage and export infrastructure, creating strong economic alignment to continue recovering ethane despite weak spot spreads.
In total, East Daley estimates up to 210 Mb/d of ethane supply could be rejected in the near term if economic signals continue to deteriorate. As the market digests changes in petrochemical demand and export economics, monitoring frac spreads, regional gas prices and facility operations will be critical to anticipating ethane supply shifts.
Exports:
Total US NGL exports declined by 11.9% week-over-week, driven by a sharp pullback in LPG volumes. However, this was partially offset by a significant rebound in ethane exports.
LPG exports fell 17.8% WoW, primarily due to weaker loadings at ET terminals:
- Nederland volumes dropped 26% WoW
- Marcus Hook volumes were down 61.5% WoW
Ethane exports surged 56.8% WoW, led by a strong recovery in volumes out of Nederland, rebounding from prior-week lows.
Rigs:
The US rig count decreased during the week of June 8 to 524. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 5 W-o-W from 415 to 410.
- Permian (-3):
- Midland (-2): Diamondback Energy, Rockport Energy Solutions
- Delaware (-1): Mewborne Energy
- Anadarko (-2): Pickrell Drilling, Double G Petro
- Powder River (-1): 1876 Resources
- Eagle Ford (+1): CML Exploration
Flows:
US natural gas volumes averaged 70.1 Bcf/d in pipeline samples for the week ending June 22, up 0.9% W-o-W from 69.5 Bcf/d the previous week.
Samples in liquids-driven basin increased 1.4% to 18.2 Bcf/d. The Permian Basin led the gains, up 2.8% W-o-W.
Gas-driven basins gained 0.6% W-o-W to average 44.4 Bcf/d. The Haynesville sample increased 1.6% to 10.5 Bcf/d. The Marcellus+Utica gained 0.3% to 32.9 Bcf/d.
Calendar:
