Permian or Bust: Why the 2025 NGL Growth Story Just Got Narrower

Executive Summary: Infrastructure: East Daley’s latest 2025 NGL Purity Product Forecast trims expected growth by 68 Mb/d compared to March. Rigs: The total US rig count increased by 6 during the week of April 6 to 577. Liquids-driven basins remained flat W-o-W at 469. Flows: For the week ending April 20, US pipeline natural gas volumes averaged 70.1 Bcf/d, marking a modest W-o-W decline from 70.2 Bcf/d the previous week. Calendar: Ethane & Propane SD April 28 | EPD & OKE Earnings April 29.

Infrastructure: East Daley’s latest 2025 NGL Purity Product Forecast trims expected growth by 68 Mb/d compared to March. While total production is still projected to rise 198 Mb/ on average, the bigger story is where that growth is, and isn’t, happening.

The Permian remains the dominant driver, contributing more than 180 Mb/d of the 198 Mb/d increase. Outside the Permian, most other regions have stalled or are shrinking, with sharp pullbacks in the Denver-Julesburg (-23 Mb/d), Anadarko (-15 Mb/d) and Eagle Ford (-8 Mb/d).

This isn’t just about price sensitivity. High transport costs and tariff exposure are real, and the data shows capital is consolidating around throughput certainty. Basins furthest from Gulf Coast demand centers, and those with diffuse ownership or infrastructure gaps, are falling out of favor.

In effect, producers are doubling down on scale, infrastructure adjacency, and marketing leverage - traits disproportionately concentrated in the Permian.

This shift has two major implications:

1. Midstream risk is rising in non-core basins. Projects in the DJ, Anadarko, and even Eagle Ford will need to fight harder for volumes and investor interest. Those exposed to single basin gathering or fractionation assets outside the Permian are facing real structural challenges.
2. NGL market modeling needs to decouple from oil production assumptions. Aging wells are yielding more natural gas across multiple basins. As more gas is produced per barrel of oil, associated NGL volumes rise. The divergence between oil and NGL trends highlights the growing role of gas-to-oil ratios (GORs), takeaway bottlenecks, and infrastructure resilience in shaping liquid volumes, factors that aren't always reflected in macro crude forecasts.

This isn’t just a slower-growth story: it’s a narrower-growth story. And the narrower the growth, the more acute the winners and losers become across producers, midstream operators and export players.

Rigs:

The total US rig count increased by 6 during the week of April 6 to 577. Liquids-driven basins remained flat W-o-W at 469.

• Permian (+1):
  • Delaware (+2): EOG Resources, Civitas Resources
  • Midland (-1): CrownQuest Operating
• DJ (+1): Occidental Petroleum
• Bakken (-1): Phoenix Capital Group Holdings
• Powder River (-1): Occidental Petroleum
  
  

Flows: For the week ending April 20, US natural gas volumes averaged 70.1 Bcf/d in pipeline samples, marking a modest W-o-W decline from 70.2 Bcf/d the previous week.

Liquids-driven basins were relatively stable at 18.1 Bcf/d, recording a minor W-o-W decrease. The Permian Basin declined by 59 MMcf/d W-o-W to average 5.81 Bcf/d, while the Anadarko Basin sample held relatively flat at 4.12 Bcf/d.

Gas-driven basins held steady on a W-o-W basis as well, maintaining an average flow of 44.5 Bcf/d. Within this segment, the Haynesville rose by 1% from 10.77 Bcf/d to 10.88 Bcf/d. This increase was offset by a 0.4% decrease in Appalachia, which averaged 32.63 Bcf/d.

Looking ahead, the Appalachia and Haynesville basins will be pivotal to monitor. With increased demand on the horizon, we expect increased production from these regions will be critical to maintaining balance between supply and demand.

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