Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: Enterprise confirmed NGL export markets are loosening as new expansions outpace supply growth.
Exports: EPD’s Neches River terminal recorded zero ethane exports this week vs 51 Mb/d last week as commissioning work continues at the facility.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased during the week of July 20 to 525. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 3 W-o-W from 400 to 397.
Flows: US natural gas volumes averaged 70.9 Bcf/d in pipeline samples for the week ending August 3, up 0.5% W-o-W.
Infrastructure:
Enterprise Products (EPD) confirmed a key point East Daley Analytics has flagged: NGL export markets are loosening as new expansions outpace supply growth.
During EPD’s 2Q25 earnings call last Monday (July 28), executives reported a 60% drop in spot rates for LPG dock slots. EPD in late July began service at its Neches River terminal, contributing in part to the looser market conditions.
It’s just one data point, but confirms our warning of a looming imbalance in the NGL space. Permian NGL supply growth has tempered while pipeline and dock infrastructure expansions now outpace supply. The industry is entering an overbuilt market, creating pressure on dock fees and introducing downside risk to recontracting across the value chain.
Since April, Permian rig counts have fallen by 40, according to East Daley’s Rig Activity Tracker, as producers respond to market uncertainty. We continue to forecast ~500 Mb/d of NGL growth from 2025 to 2030 (exit-to-exit), though this is 250 Mb/d below our prior growth trajectory on average.
With slower supply growth, dock space will increasingly sit idle. In the NGL Hub Model, East Daley forecasts ~500 Mb/d of LPG dock capacity will remain unused between 2028-30 (see figure). This is not a demand-side issue; rather, the infrastructure buildout is running ahead of the barrels needed to fill it.
These new conditions signal a strategic pivot from fee maximization to volume capture. In this environment, vertical integration is critical. Companies like EPD, Energy Transfer (ET) and Targa, who control the full NGL chain from wellhead to dock, are best positioned to retain barrels and protect system margin.
Expect midstream players to lean into strategies to capture volumes. The goal has shifted to maximizing throughput and keeping barrels on integrated chains, from G&P systems to pipes, fractionators and export terminals. This environment creates “loss-leader” conditions, where players may accept tight or negative margins on certain segments to preserve system-wide returns through scale and integration.
By contrast, companies with less integration face greater risk. ONEOK (OKE) and MPLX are particularly exposed at their Texas City JV dock. MPLX’s recent $2.375B acquisition of Northwind Midstream highlights the intensifying competition for supply. East Daley estimates the system will provide ~24 Mb/d of LPGs, 12% of MPLX’s 200 Mb/d dock capacity.
Exports:
Total US NGL exports declined 9.6% W-o-W, falling from 2,720 Mb/d to 2,459 Mb/d. The sharp drop was largely driven by a 43.3% decline in ethane exports, which more than offset a modest 1.1% increase in LPG volumes.
Notably, Enterprise’s Neches River terminal recorded zero ethane exports this week, following 51 Mb/d last week. This suggests EPD is still commissioning the facility and preparing it for full commercial operations.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased during the week of July 20 to 525. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 3 W-o-W from 400 to 397.
- Permian – Delaware (-3): Chevron, Devon, Exxon
- Bakken (-1): Phoenix Energy One, LLC
- Denver-Julesburg (-1): Occidental Petroleum
- Eagle Ford (-1): ConocoPhillips
- Anadarko (+1): Pantera Energy
- Powder River (+1): Occidental Petroleum
- Uinta (+1): Uinta Wax Operating, LLC
Flows:
US natural gas volumes averaged 70.9 Bcf/d in pipeline samples for the week ending August 3, up 0.5% W-o-W from 70.5 Bcf/d the previous week.
The Permian sample increased 1.3% W-o-W to 6.4 Bcf/d. Gas basins were unchanged at a 44.1 Bcf/d average. The Haynesville sample declined 1.5% to 10.8 Bcf/d, while the Marcellus+Utica rose 0.4% to 32.3 Bcf/d.
Calendar:
