Supply growth from the Permian Basin will bring more barrels to Gulf Coast terminals this year – and also increase pipeline congestion. In the latest Permian Crude Oil Supply and Demand Report, East Daley Analytics forecasts crude oil production to increase 330 Mb/d from 2024 to 2025 averages, nearly all of which is destined for export docks.
The Permian barrel has direct and economically competitive access to all US Gulf Coast export terminals, other than Louisiana’s LOOP. With refinery demand relatively flat or slightly declining, these export terminals are critical to connecting supply growth to markets.
Today’s premiere export dock is the Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC) in Corpus Christi. EIEC is the largest crude oil export terminal in North America, loading 25% of US Gulf Coast exports. In 2H24, EIEC loaded ~1.1 MMb/d (47%) of the ~2.42 MMb/d exported through Corpus Christi export docks.
Enbridge (ENB) could handle even more barrels at Ingleside, but loadings are held back by a lack of pipeline egress. EIEC is currently utilizing ~68% of its 1.6 MMb/d capacity, while total pipeline egress to Corpus docks is ~94% used, according to the Crude Hub Model.
Enbridge is expanding Gray’s Oak Pipeline by 120 Mb/d in 2025, and EPIC Pipeline is likely to expand 300 Mb/d. These projects could allow EIEC utilization to climb to as high as 90% (~1.45 MMb/d). Gibson Energy’s South Texas Gateway Export Terminal in Ingleside is running at ~75% utilization (~600 Mb/d) and is another important player in the Corpus Christi market.
The Houston/Nederland market is fast approaching Corpus Christi’s dominance at 2.1 MMb/d of crude exports vs 2.4 MMb/d from Corpus. In the Crude Hub Model, Houston export volumes exceed Corpus Christi’s by 3Q25, largely due to pipeline egress constraints.
Permian pipelines to Corpus Christi are ~94% utilized and remain >90% filled even after the Gray Oak expansion. Permian pipelines to Houston/Nederland markets have more room to grow at ~85% utilization currently. We expect these pipelines to Houston/Nederland will remain under 90% utilization even while the Permian continues to grow.
Enterprise Products’ (EPD) Houston Ship Channel (HSC) dominates among Houston export terminals, exporting ~750 Mb/d in 2024. However, HSC has extraordinary growth potential with capacity of 2.184 MMb/d, plus ample pipeline egress to receive more barrels. EPD’s Midland-to-Echo I and III pipelines have direct access to HSC and are ~95% utilized. However, EPD is returning the Midland-to-Echo II Pipeline to crude service in 4Q25, adding 200 Mb/d of egress from the Permian to Houston.
ONEOK’s (OKE) Seabrook Export Terminal in Freeport, TX and Energy Transfer’s Houston Fuel Oil Terminal (HFOT) add another ~1.2 MMb/d of export capacity in the Houston market. Each terminal is moving ~220 Mb/d.
We model adequate pipeline capacity from Houston export terminals in the near term, but growing utilization will cause congestion and lead to the MEH benchmark widening out. Congestion in the bay to export terminals will also likely increase and lead to higher reverse lightering charges. See East Daley’s Crude Hub Model for more information. – Kristy Oleszek Tickers: ENB, EPD, ET, OKE.
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