NGL Roundup: September 1, 2023
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- EIA NGL production came in at 6,527 Mb/d, 1% higher than our forecast, and increased 2% M-o-M (+152 Mb/d) and +9% (+519 Mb/d) Y-o-Y. Production came in below expectations at most major on-shore basins, but the M-o-M jump was driven by the Appalachia, Ohio (Utica), and the Louisiana Gulf Coast (off-shore) sub-PADDs.
- Ethane recovery took a dip across most major basins, despite continued strength in domestic consumption and exports. Recovery especially dropped in the Anadarko (-16%) and Williston (-23%) but increased 17% in the Northeast (+46 Mb/d) as the Shell Monaca cracker resumed operations faster than expected after various disruptions earlier this year.
- The lower Permian frac spread in June likely caused the dip in ethane production. The spread decreased from $0.12/gal in May to $0.09/gal in June. We expected high demand to still result in higher ethane production, but it seems the jump in offshore production (+108%, 64 Mb/d) was enough to meet the higher demand. Permian frac spreads jumped in July to $0.21/gal and remain elevated in August at $0.13/gal, indicating the June decline in ethane production is a small blip.
- Propane/Propylene stocks are still recording new five-year highs, but declining closer toward the 5-year average when viewing it in terms of Days of Supply and accounting for the higher export demand.
- Interested in tracking basin and sub-basin NGL production, ethane rejection, and fractionator utilization? EDA’s NGL Network Model and Purity Product Forecast will help you dig deeper than EIA data and connect the dots between NGL supply and demand.
Get a complete view of NGL markets in The NGL Roundup, now available FREE from East Daley Analytics.
The NGL Roundup reviews monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. Follow key NGL data trends:
- NGL production by basin
- Supply forecasts by NGL purity product
- Ethane recovery by basin
- Historical and future NGL prices
- Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
- NGL storage trends
- Regional NGL exports
The NGL Roundup is East Daley’s latest product driving transparency to energy markets. We provide a FREE snapshot of data from our NGL Network Model and Purity Product Dataset. These reports tie our NGL supply forecasts to downstream markets, providing asset-specific insights such as pipeline and fractionation volumes and rates.
We use our patented method to monitor midstream flows from processing plants to fractionation centers, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks before the market recognizes them. Using a bottoms-up approach to supply, we go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening on the ground in NGLs.
Learn more and request data on East Daley's NGL Network Model and NGL Purity Product here.