Crude flows are shifting to the Cushing hub thanks to changes in several basins serving the Oklahoma storage complex. The upshot is more demand for northbound service from the Permian. Plains All American (PAA) has seen an early lift from this trend, and we expect more gains ahead for certain assets.
East Daley Analytics’ Crude Hub Model captures the evolving dynamic at Cushing: barrels traveling through the Rockies from Guernsey, WY and from the Denver-Julesburg Basin will decline, while flows from the Permian increase to fill the void.
Our Production Scenario Tools (available by basin in Energy Data Studio) forecast Bakken crude oil production to grow from ~1.26 MMb/d in 2024 to an average of 1.32 MMb/d in 2025. Despite this growth, Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) conversion of Double H pipeline to NGL service in 1Q26 will leave True Companies' Bridger Pipeline as the sole egress route to Guernsey, limiting Bakken barrels in that market.
The loss of Bakken crude at Guernsey comes as production declines from other Rockies basins. We see modest supply growth of 5 Mb/d in the Powder River Basin in 2025, but this is more than offset by a fall in the DJ. We forecast DJ oil production to slide ~60 Mb/d Y-o-Y by YE25 as lower rig counts and consolidation take a toll on output.
East Daley’s Bakken – Guernsey – DJ S&D Report predicts barrels moving from Guernsey to the DJ Basin will drop from ~163 Mb/d in 3Q25 to ~137 Mb/d in 1Q26, while DJ-to-Cushing flows decline from ~474 Mb/d to ~433 Mb/d. With Oklahoma's ~530 Mb/d of refining capacity and Cushing’s vast ~94 MMbbl storage infrastructure, reduced supply poses challenges for meeting market demand.
To compensate, pipelines from the Permian provide alternative supply to Cushing. By 1Q26, volumes on PAA’s Basin Pipeline rise ~21 Mb/d to ~314 Mb/d, while Centurion Pipeline flows average ~108 Mb/d (see figure from Energy Data Studio).
Plains is already seeing gains from this trend. PAA reported 3Q24 crude volumes of 6,944 Mb/d in the Permian Basin, up 13.5% vs 3Q23. On the investor call, management cited higher throughput on Basin Pipeline as one of the factors contributing to growth in Permian throughput.
While routes to Corpus Christi and Houston will remain the preferred destination for Permian crude, pipes to Cushing are also poised to gain. In the PAA Financial Blueprint, EDA forecasts Basin Pipeline’s annual earnings grow from ~$99.0MM in 2024 to $112.81MM in 2025. – Gage Dwan Tickers: KMI, PAA.
New Updates to Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Crude Oil Supply & Demand Report
East Daley is excited to announce new updates for our Bakken-GSNY-DJ Crude Oil Supply & Demand report. Updated monthly, this product now features an interactive dashboard and includes our forecast for the Uinta Basin. This report uniquely visualizes crude oil supply, demand and flows in the Bakken and Rockies regions. Learn more about the Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Crude Oil Crude Oil Report.
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