Executive Summary: Rigs: The total US rig count decreased by 16 during the week of March 9 to 542. Infrastructure: Following 4Q24 energy earnings, updated guidance from Permian Basin operators indicates crude oil production will grow 306 Mb/d (+4.8%) on average from 2024 to ’25. Storage: East Daley expects a 350 Mbbl injection into commercial and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories for the week ending March 21.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased by 16 during the week of March 9 to 542. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 17 W-o-W to 447.
Infrastructure:
Following 4Q24 energy earnings, updated guidance from Permian Basin operators indicates crude oil production will grow 306 Mb/d (+4.8%) on average from 2024 to ’25. The results trail East Daley Analytics’ forecast for +363 Mb/d growth in 2025, though we suspect some operators are lowballing initial guidance.
Our survey of the latest Permian guidance is shown in the table. Operators ExxonMobil (XOM), Matador Resources (MTDR), Devon Energy (DVN), Permian Resources (PR) and Chevron (CVX) are driving the growth, projecting gains of 7–20% in 2025. Others, such as Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Civitas (CIVI), plan to maintain flat production.
Public producer guidance currently exceeds OPEC’s supply expectations, aligns with the EIA’s outlook, and is below EDA’s forecast for a +363 Mb/d (+5.7%) increase. EDA’s Permian Production Scenario Tool in Energy Data Studio is based on 281 active rigs and initial production (IP) rates per well of 925 b/d in the Midland and 1,000 b/d in the Delaware sub-basins. We also incorporate factors such as decline rates, drilling schedules and well completions into our basin forecasts.
A key variable in the outlook is the role of private operators, who have historically expanded output at a faster rate than public E&Ps. However, industry consolidation has shifted the balance, with public E&Ps now operating over 75% of active rigs following the acquisition of several private producers. Given these historical trends, EDA estimates private producers with grow at a more rapid rate, suggesting additional upside to the production forecast.
Furthermore, public producers have a track record of exceeding initial production guidance, which may result in higher-than-expected output. As a result, actual Permian production growth could surpass current forecasts, depending on execution and operational efficiencies.
Storage:
East Daley expects a 350 Mbbl injection into commercial and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories for the week ending March 21. We expect total US stocks, including the SPR, will close at 834 MMbbl.
The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, decreased 0.66% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins. Samples increased 7.07% in the Eagle Ford and 1% in the DJ basins, and decreased 2.17% in the Permian, 2.08% in the Anadarko and 1.73% in the Williston. The Rockies and the Gulf of Mexico have a high correlation between gas volumes and crude oil volumes, whereas the Permian and Eagle Ford basins correlation is less than 45%.
We expect US crude production to be 13.6 MMb/d. According to US bill of lading data, US crude imports increased to 5.8 MMb/d. More than 60% of the supply originated from Canadian pipelines and vessels into the US, with the remainder largely coming from vessels carrying crude from Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela.
As of March 21, there was ~884 Mb/d of refining capacity offline, including downtime for planned and unplanned maintenance. EDA expects gross crude input into refineries to increase, coming in at 15.8 MMb/d.
Vessel traffic monitored by EDA along the Gulf Coast remained flat W-o-W. There were 24 vessels loaded for the week ending March 21 and 24 the prior week. EDA expects US exports to be 4.1 MMb/d.
The SPR awarded contracts for 6.0 MMbbl to be delivered to Choctaw from February–May and 2.475 to be delivered to Bryan Mount Jan–March 2025. The SPR has 397 MMbbl in storage as of March 21, 2025.
Regulatory and Tariffs:
Presented by ARBO
Tariffs:
Express Pipeline LLC Initial committed rates were established through an open season process for the Express Canada pipeline, which contracted capacity that became available. FERC No 167.29.0 IS25-261 (filed February 25, 2025) Effective April 1, 2025.
Gray Oak Pipeline, LLC Initial committed rates were established through an open season process that Gray Oak held from May 9, 2024 through May 9, 2024 (2024 Expansion Open Season) for committed service related to certain expansion capacity made possible through the Gray Oak Expansion Project. FERC No 2.26.0 IS25-252 (filed February 27, 2025) Effective April 1, 2025.
The above information is provided by ARBO’s Oil Pipeline Tariff Monitor. For more information on regulatory proceedings or tariff rates, please contact please contact Corey Brill via email at corey@goarbo.com or phone at 202-505-5296. https://www.goarbo.com/