The Daley Note

East Daley Capital’s Daley Note provides daily proprietary market commentary on North American oil and gas fundamentals. The Daley Note (TDN), “midstream insights delivered daily,” covers news, commodity prices, security prices, and EDC research likely to affect markets in the short term. Please subscribe to get the Daley Note delivered to your email, past issues are added to this page on an ongoing basis.

April 2021

  • The Daley Note 4/07/2021

    • Not an April Fools’ Joke: The Bonanza Creek and HighPoint merger announced in Nov. 2020 closed April 1, combining BCEI’s acreage in the northeast Wattenburg with HPR’s in the Wattenburg and Hereford areas. BCEI, DCP, HPR, PDCE, SMLP
    • East Daley Joins RBN in New Webinar: East Daley will join RBN Energy for a live webinar April 8 reviewing a recent report on TC Energy. Click here to register for tomorrow’s webinar. TRP
    • Redesigned East Daley 1Q21 Earnings Previews: We will release to clients our newly updated 1Q21 Earnings Previews for the 26 midstream energy companies within our coverage in the coming weeks. Contact sales@eastdaley.com for more information.
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  • The Daley Note 4/01/2021

    • Canadian Natural Resources System Outperforms in WCSB : Currently there are 70 rigs active in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin amid the industry’s regional “spring break-up.” ATGFF, CNQ, ET, OVV, PEYUF
    • Biden Plan Targets Renewables, Electrification: President Joe Biden on Wednesday unveiled a $2 trillion infrastructure plan that proposes new spending targeting renewable energy, with one item of note for oil and gas.
    • East Daley Expands Private Debt Coverage: East Daley has expanded The Daley Note to include real-time updates on movements in private company debt in the midstream sector, available in today’s edition.
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March 2021

  • The Daley Note 3/31/2021

    • MVP = More Virginia Problems: A Virginia environmental agency wants more time to review construction permits for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a development which could affect project finances for sponsor Equitrans Midstream. ATGFF, ED, ETRN, EQT, NEE, RGCO
    • East Daley Expands Private Debt Coverage: East Daley has expanded The Daley Note to include real-time updates on movements in private company debt in the midstream sector, available in today’s edition.
    • “Easy Does It” on Williston Basin Rigs: Rig recovery in the Williston Basin has been tepid due to uncertainty over the Dakota Access Pipeline, though East Daley forecasts increased activity in 2H2021 once regulatory matters are resolved. CEQP, CLR, COP, EOG, ERF, HES, OKE, OMP, XOM
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  • The Daley Note 3/30/2021

    • Exports Bolster Ethane in Market Turbulence: Increased export demand is the likely driver behind the relatively resilient ethane pricing and recovery we’ve seen recently, bringing upside for export terminal owners. EPD, ET
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  • The Daley Note 3/26/2021

    • Williams’ Northeast Systems Point to Gas Upside: East Daley called out the upside potential for natural gas in our 2021 Dirty Little Secrets report, an outlook mainly confirmed by quarterly data on several Williams gathering systems. WMB
    • API Endorses Carbon Pricing: The country’s leading oil lobby endorsed a carbon tax or fee on Thursday, demonstrating the increased salience of climate issues for the oil and gas industry.
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  • The Daley Note 3/25/2021

    • Better Blending Ahead?: Magellan recently gave 2021 guidance below East Daley and Street estimates, and part of the deficit appears to be driven by management’s outlook on butane blending. MMP
    • Court Win Improves Odds for NFG’s Northern Access Project: National Fuel Gas won a key court case Tuesday against New York regulators that increases odds its long-delayed Northern Access Project can move ahead and create a new outlet for Marcellus-Utica gas. KMI, NFG, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 3/24/2021

    • Private Operators and Permian Rig Recovery: Private E&Ps continue to redeploy rigs at a faster pace than public E&Ps in the Permian, benefiting midstream operators such as Western Midstream, Targa Resources and others during the rig recovery. CDEV, DCP, OXY, PXD, TRGP, WES
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  • The Daley Note 3/23/2021

    • Private Operators and Permian Rig Recovery: Private E&Ps continue to redeploy rigs at a faster pace than public E&Ps in the Permian, benefiting midstream operators such as Western Midstream, Targa Resources and others during the rig recovery. CDEV, DCP, OXY, PXD, TRGP, WES
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  • The Daley Note 3/19/2021

    • WES Rig Counts Point to EBITDA Upside: Rig activity has quadrupled this year on Western Midstream’s DJ Basin system, creating upside to our 2021 earnings outlook for the company. OXY, WES
    • Oil Falls 7% in Market Retreat: Oil prices fell sharply Thursday, though the cause for the pullback wasn’t entirely clear by the end of the day. Market watchers cited many factors including demand recovery concerns and profit-taking.
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  • The Daley Note 3/18/2021

    • This DJ’s Spinning the Hits: The push for increased Denver-Julesburg operations in 2021 is one midstream New Year’s resolution that seems to be holding true, driven by growth from private drillers. CVX, EOG, OXY, PDC, SMLP, WES, XOG
    • Midstream Activity Tracker — Permian Leads W-o-W Rig Increase: We provide weekly updates to rig counts, well metrics, and featured systems to subscribers. This past week, U.S. rigs increased by 6.7 total. ENLC, ET, TRGP, WMB
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  • The Daley Note 3/17/2021

    • Start of Revolution Plant Advances ET’s NGL Ambitions: Revolution’s start-up in early March 2021 is unexpected but positive news for Energy Transfer. The plant has potential to generate significant EBITDA on its own and to support volumes on ET’s new Mariner East 2/2X pipelines. ET, MPLX
    • Port of Corpus Christi Posts Record Crude Exports: Corpus Christi continues to lead the U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil export market with record shipments, though plenty of spare capacity remains for growth out of the South Texas port. ENB, EPD, ET
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  • The Daley Note 3/16/2021

    • Start of Revolution Plant Advances ET’s NGL Ambitions: Revolution’s start-up in early March 2021 is unexpected but positive news for Energy Transfer. The plant has potential to generate significant EBITDA on its own and to support volumes on ET’s new Mariner East 2/2X pipelines. ET, MPLX
    • Port of Corpus Christi Posts Record Crude Exports: Corpus Christi continues to lead the U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil export market with record shipments, though plenty of spare capacity remains for growth out of the South Texas port. ENB, EPD, ET
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  • The Daley Note 3/12/2021

    • The Cheaper Option: A recent declaratory order filed for the Borger Express Pipeline does not name a specific shipper, though East Daley expects Phillips 66 and Cenovus Energy are feeding the Cushing egress pipeline. CVE, ENB, EPD, PAA, PSX, TRP
    • Better Together in the Eagle Ford: Drilling activity in the Eagle Ford has increased by 6 rigs since the end of 2020 mostly due to BP re-entering the play with 4 rigs currently, all on Kinder Morgan’s system. BP, KMI
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  • The Daley Note 3/11/2021

    • Summit Lightens the Load: Recent debt management moves have improved Summit Midstream’s financial position from previous East Daley forecasts, though we still expect earnings to decline in half of SMLP’s eight operating areas in 2021. SMLP
    • Crude Storage Up, Refined Products Down: U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply in the most recent week according to the Energy Information Administration, but refined product inventories continue to fall as Gulf Coast operations remain disrupted following the mid-February Arctic blast.
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  • The Daley Note 3/10/2021

    • Cushing to Nederland Fast-Track: One Midstreamer expects to bring a Cushing to Nederland oil system online during 2Q21 that could transport 65 – 120 Mb/d, adding to an already overbuilt Cushing egress balance.ET, NS, VLO
    • ET Starts Revolution Plant for Mystery Shipper: Energy Transfer’s Revolution plant came online the first week of March to process for a mystery shipper, diverting Marcellus–Utica gas away from MPLX’s Bluestone plant. ET, MPLX
    • Access East Daley’s 4Q20 Midstream Earnings Review: We hosted a webinar discussion last week reviewing 4Q20 earnings for companies in our coverage group, and published a Midstream Navigator on Friday further exploring those results.AM, CEQP, DCP, ENBL, ENLC, GEL, MMP
    • IPL Rejects Hostile Brookfield Bid: Inter Pipeline said its board unanimously rejected a hostile takeover offer from Brookfield Infrastructure Partners as not in the best interests of the company or shareholders. BIP, IPL.TSE
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  • The Daley Note 3/8/2021

    • Chevron (CVX) said Friday (3/5/21) it has reached an agreement to acquire Noble Midstream (NBLX) in an allstock transaction that should facilitate the major’s future drilling on NBLX’s systems in the Permian and DJ basins. (NBLX)
    • Antero Midstream (AM) cut its dividend from $1.23 to $0.90/share beginning in 1Q21 to fund new growth projects planned by parent company Antero Resources (AR) in the Northeast, a development we expect to create upside to our AM Blueprint Model in 2021. (AM), (AR)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital markets and commodities teams hosted a webinar discussion on March 3, reviewing 4Q20 earnings for midstream companies in our coverage group. Contact sales@eastdaley.com to access a recording of the webinar.
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  • The Daley Note 3/5/2021

    • While we can’t be sure if Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) CO2 segment either shut-in production to avoid losses or hedged its power exposure, status-quo production could have produced a $220 million opex increase vs. 1Q20 in the aftermath of the Arctic winter storm that froze over the Central U.S. in mid-February. (KMI)
    • Crude prices surged up to 5% on Thursday as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to extend most of their production cuts through April, bucking market expectations for some easing of supply curbs as global economic activity recovers. (OPEC)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital markets and commodities teams hosted a webinar discussion yesterday, March 3, reviewing 4Q20 earnings for midstream companies in our coverage group. Contact sales@eastdaley.com to access a recording of the webinar.
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  • The Daley Note 3/4/2021

    • Devon Energy’s (DVN) 4Q20 earnings call last month provided updated rig guidance for 2021 activity, including a planned return to the STACK play in the Anadarko Basin where DVN is a legacy operator. (DVN)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital markets and commodities teams hosted a webinar discussion yesterday, March 3, reviewing 4Q20 earnings for midstream companies in our coverage group. Contact sales@eastdaley.com to access a recording of the webinar.
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  • The Daley Note 3/3/2021

    • East Daley’s bullish outlook for natural gas depends in part on continued strong LNG export demand, which we expect to average 9.6 Bcf/d in 2021. LNG exports have steadily risen from 3% of total demand in 2018, to 7% in 2020, and we project a 10% share in 2021.
    • East Daley’s pipeline sample covers 76% of the 85.4 Bcf/d of U.S. dry natural gas production in 13 key U.S. basins as of January 2021. Within that sample, coverage ranges from a low of 24% in the Eagle Ford to 100% in the Williston and Marcellus in northeast Pennsylvania.
    •  Analysts from East Daley’s capital markets and commodities teams will host a webinar discussion this morning, March 3 reviewing 4Q20 earnings for midstream companies in our coverage group. Click here to register for the webinar event.
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  • The Daley Note 3/2/2021

    • East Daley forecasts natural gas prices still have room to run despite the recent run-up in Henry Hub futures, as we expect the cumulative gas draw for this winter to surpass the five-year maximum in an overall winter of normal seasonal temperatures.
    • Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) management recently reaffirmed the expected in-service date of Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in late 2021, slightly ahead of East Daley’s forecast of 1Q22, following MVP’s legal win against a suit brought by several environmental groups. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital markets and commodities teams will host a webinar discussion on Wednesday, March 3 reviewing 4Q20 earnings for midstream companies in our coverage group. Click here to register for the webinar event.
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  • The Daley Note 3/1/2021

    • The Chief Operating Officer for EnLink Midstream (ENLC), Ben Lamb, stated in its 4Q20 earnings that ENLC’s operations had “experienced significant, but short-term reductions in volumes, mainly in Oklahoma and Texas” because of the recent severe cold weather. ENLC did not provide estimations on the severity of the impact for 1Q21 performance. (ENCL)
    • East Daley anticipates a delay in any potential rate cuts on Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Colonial refined products pipeline to late 1Q22, due to a lag in the ongoing rate case contesting Colonial tariffs. (SHLX)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital markets and commodities teams will host a webinar discussion on Wednesday, March 3 reviewing 4Q20 earnings for midstream companies in our coverage group. Click here to register for the webinar event.
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February 2021

  • The Daley Note 2/26/2021

    • Newer, lower-cost pipelines and cheap expansion projects have overwhelmed the Permian, North America’s biggest oil market, and disrupted fee-for-service revenues of the legacy operators. Recent higher WTI prices however point to higher production forecasts than we previously expected, somewhat brightening the outlook for Permian egress pipelines.
    •  U.S. natural gas storage posted the second-largest withdrawal on record last week, and the largest ever in the South-Central producing region, amid a bitter Arctic front that has erased a persistent storage overhang and tightened the 2021 gas market.
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET) (ENBL)
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  • The Daley Note 2/25/2021

    • In our total rig allocation to acreage serviced by U.S. and Canadian gatherers and processors (G&P), we tally 142 rigs (26% of 545 assigned) working in territory serviced by private midstream companies. (G&P)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
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  • The Daley Note 2/24/2021

    • There are only two active rigs in the Piceance Basin and one active rig in the Green River Basin, operated by Jonah Energy and Caerus Oil & Gas. East Daley models two of the three active rigs in the two basins to be on the Meeker and Pioneer gathering and processing (G&P) systems owned by Enterprise Products (EPD). (G&P), (EPD)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET),(ENBL)
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  • The Daley Note 2/23/2021

    • Gas Production Recovering From Freeze-offs
    • East Daley Webinar on Energy Transfer-Enable Midstream Acquisition
    • Bills Come Due Following Gas and Power Price Spikes
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/22/2021

    • LNG feedgas deliveries plunged this week as frigid temperatures and electrical outages disrupted service at several terminals. We have seen delivery volumes recover steadily in the last three days, but totals are still nearly half what they were ahead of the freeze.
    • Power is being restored across Texas while gas prices fell from historic highs as the state begins to thaw from emergency conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/19/2021

    • An unprecedented ban on exports from Texas disrupted natural gas markets Thursday as the state’s energy infrastructure copes with a fifth day of extreme winter weather conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • Higher oil prices combined with new uncertainties around leasing on federal lands stand to benefit Western Midstream (WES), which is seeing rising drilling on its gathering and processing (G&P) system in the Delaware Basin. (WES), (G&P)
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  • The Daley Note 2/18/2021

    • Energy Transfer (ET) will acquire Enable Midstream (ENBL) in an all-equity deal valued at ~$7.2 billion, a tieup at a reasonable multiple (7.0x EBITDA) that creates several opportunities for natural gas and NGL asset synergies in the Anadarko and Ark-La-Tex basins once ET closes the deal. (ET), (ENBL)
    • Propane markets were heating up even ahead of the latest Arctic freeze gripping the Central U.S., a function of higher exports and demand as many businesses across the U.S. turn to alternative methods to keep people warm amid indoor gathering restrictions.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/17/2021

    • Rolling Blackouts, Price Spikes Roil Energy Markets on Record Cold: Shortages and price spikes hit Texas and the Midcontinent as energy systems failed to cope with extreme cold weather, a failure due in part to wellhead freeze-offs that sent spot gas prices soaring.
    • Deep Freeze Cuts Anadarko Gas Supplies 60%+: Freezing weather in the Anadarko Basin has slashed gas delivery by up to 63% and sent gas prices surging to $300+ at some regional hubs, a development that could benefit midstream with exposure to percent-ofproceeds (POP) contracts and gas marketing businesses.
    • There’s a New Cowboy in Town: ExxonMobil (XOM/XTO) dropped its New Mexico rig count during the tumultuous 2H2020, but that’s not the only XOM news in the Delaware Basin: as part of its Poker Lake development, XOM is constructing the Cowboy Central Delivery Point, a gas processing facility with oil and NGL stabilization capability. (XOM/XTO)
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  • The Daley Note 2/16/2021

    • Gas Prices Soar on Frigid Weather, Freeze-offs: Spot natural gas prices soared Friday as a massive Artic cold front pushed southward through the Central U.S., sending demand skyward as supplies became scarce in the frigid cold.
    • Wink to Webster Tariff Points to Heated Permian Competition: The Wink to Webster (W2W) pipeline is offering the lowest current contracted crude egress rate out of the Permian, according to newly posted pipeline tariffs, reflecting heated competition among major pipelines to move crude oil out of the basin to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
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  • The Daley Note 2/12/2021

    • Winter Chill Lights a Fire Under Natural Gas Markets: A potentially record-breaking Arctic cold front is poised to salvage the winter for natural gas producers and lend support to East Daley’s call for 2021 Henry Hub prices near $3/MMBtu, a boost for midstream names levered to natural gas development.
    • Midstream Activity Tracker: Rigs Hold Steady for Jan. 31 Week: We publish our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT) each week to update clients on the most recent U.S. rig activity in each of the major basins. We released this week’s MAT on Feb. 10.
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  • The Daley Note 2/11/2021

    • Private vs Public Permian Rig Growth: Private E&Ps have returned rigs back to the Permian Basin at a faster rate than public operators as the basin recovers from the low of 116 average rigs for the week of August 2, 2020.
    • Apollo Mission: MPLX Sees Permian Recovery and Growth Opportunities: In MPLX’s 4Q2020 earnings call, management reported 438 MMcf/d gathered on its West Texas system, driving utilization to 73%. This marked a swifter recovery from 2020’s 3Q lows than we had anticipated, as reported numbers came 9% above East Daley’s system estimate and point to a potential need for system expansions.
    • Watch out for East Daley’s New Webinar on REX Pipeline: East Daley will host our next webinar, “A Rocky Road for Rockies Express Pipeline,” for clients on Thursday, Feb. 11.
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  • The Daley Note 2/10/2021

    • DAPL’s Never-Ending Hangover: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) requested an additional two months to determine if and how the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) should operate until its court-ordered Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) review is completed, putting the pipeline’s future operations back in doubt. (USACE), (DAPL), (EIS)
    • East Daley is Live on Bloomberg: East Daley’s midstream energy data and analysis are now available through the Bloomberg Terminal.
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  • The Daley Note 2/09/2021

    • Chevron Bids to Roll Up Noble Midstream: Chevron (CVX) made a no-premium offer to buy Noble Midstream Partners (NBLX), clarifying the supermajor’s plans for the midstream unit following its acquisition of Noble Energy in October. (CVX), (NBLX)
    • 4Q20 Earnings Reports Roll In: Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) and MPLX (MPLX) (covered by East Daley) have reported 4Q20 earnings. Our 4Q20 Post-Call Board Reports for EPD, KMI, MMP, and MPLX are now available. Please log in to access the reports included in your subscription or contact sales@eastdaley.com for more information. Tickers: (EPD), (KMI), (MMP), (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 2/08/2021

    • Tacos al Carbon, Please: MPLX’s (MPLX) Tex NewMex Pipeline stands to benefit from a decision by parent company Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to permanently shutter its Gallup refinery, providing transit for oil supplies in the San Juan and Paradox basins that were previously refined locally. (MPLX), (MPC)
    • Enable Midstream on the Gulf Run: Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) is capitalizing on future growth in the Ark-La-Tex through higher contracting and its new Gulf Run gas pipeline project. (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/05/2021

    • It’s Brutal in the Bakken: Freezing weather in the Midwest brought Williston Basin gas residue samples down at the end of January, and we expect volumes to continue to decline with more cold weather in February.
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  • The Daley Note 2/04/2021

    • Leidy South Approval Gives Lift to Williams, Northeast Producers: On Jan. 29 Williams (WMB) gained approval to construct a 3.5-mile section of the Leidy South expansion on its Transcontinental (Transco) pipeline, a project that will increase downstream capacity for Marcellus producers and add runway for volume growth on midstream gathering systems in the northeastern Pennsylvania Marcellus sub-basin, including those owned by WMB. (WMB), (TRANSCO)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/03/2021

    • NE Egress Capacity Crunch Looms Without MVP: Capacity limitations on Northeast (NE) gas appear on the horizon, and the potential absence of Equitrans Midstream (ETRN’s) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) might only make matters worse nationwide, driving up gas prices. (NE), (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 2/02/2021

    • Midstream Implications of Surge Energy’s $420 MM Grenadier Purchase: Surge Energy bought $420 million worth of Permian assets from Grenadier Energy Partners II (GEP II), the company announced Sunday (Jan. 31). The deal brings potential upside for midstream companies with exposure to the two companies including DCP Midstream (DCP), EnLink (ENLC), and privately held West Texas Gas. Targa’s (TRGP) dominant role in processing legacy Surge volumes could benefit from a healthier entity, but might also lose out if capex shifts to the acquired acreage. (GEP II), (DCP), (ENLC), (TRGP)
    • Repsol Sees Declines on Northeast PA Gas System: Marcellus gas recovery is in steady decline on the REPPY-Repsol gathering system in northeastern Pennsylvania, losing market share to competing producers and midstream systems in the Northeast Pennsylvania sub-region.
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  • The Daley Note 2/01/2021

    • More Valuable than Toilet Paper in 2020: Producers in 2020 were stockpiling drilling permits ahead of the incoming Biden administration, a newly valuable commodity following Biden’s signing last Wednesday (Jan. 27) of an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands. A large inventory of permits should help alleviate near-term risk to activity and midstream volumes resulting from a moratorium or further limits.
    • Crestwood is Banking on the Bakken: Crestwood Equity Partners (CEQP) relies heavily on its Arrow system in the Bakken to drive its revenue, and during 2H2020 CEQP reported record volumes on the system. East Daley is expecting volumes on Arrow to continue to rise in 2021. (CEQP)
    • November Crude Production Up M-o-M: The U.S. Energy Information Administration updated its 2020 crude production data Friday (Jan. 29) to include November 2020 volumes.
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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February 2021

  • The Daley Note 2/26/2021

    • Newer, lower-cost pipelines and cheap expansion projects have overwhelmed the Permian, North America’s biggest oil market, and disrupted fee-for-service revenues of the legacy operators. Recent higher WTI prices however point to higher production forecasts than we previously expected, somewhat brightening the outlook for Permian egress pipelines.
    •  U.S. natural gas storage posted the second-largest withdrawal on record last week, and the largest ever in the South-Central producing region, amid a bitter Arctic front that has erased a persistent storage overhang and tightened the 2021 gas market.
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET) (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/25/2021

    • In our total rig allocation to acreage serviced by U.S. and Canadian gatherers and processors (G&P), we tally 142 rigs (26% of 545 assigned) working in territory serviced by private midstream companies. (G&P)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/24/2021

    • There are only two active rigs in the Piceance Basin and one active rig in the Green River Basin, operated by Jonah Energy and Caerus Oil & Gas. East Daley models two of the three active rigs in the two basins to be on the Meeker and Pioneer gathering and processing (G&P) systems owned by Enterprise Products (EPD). (G&P), (EPD)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET),(ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/23/2021

    • Gas Production Recovering From Freeze-offs
    • East Daley Webinar on Energy Transfer-Enable Midstream Acquisition
    • Bills Come Due Following Gas and Power Price Spikes
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/22/2021

    • LNG feedgas deliveries plunged this week as frigid temperatures and electrical outages disrupted service at several terminals. We have seen delivery volumes recover steadily in the last three days, but totals are still nearly half what they were ahead of the freeze.
    • Power is being restored across Texas while gas prices fell from historic highs as the state begins to thaw from emergency conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/19/2021

    • An unprecedented ban on exports from Texas disrupted natural gas markets Thursday as the state’s energy infrastructure copes with a fifth day of extreme winter weather conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • Higher oil prices combined with new uncertainties around leasing on federal lands stand to benefit Western Midstream (WES), which is seeing rising drilling on its gathering and processing (G&P) system in the Delaware Basin. (WES), (G&P)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/18/2021

    • Energy Transfer (ET) will acquire Enable Midstream (ENBL) in an all-equity deal valued at ~$7.2 billion, a tieup at a reasonable multiple (7.0x EBITDA) that creates several opportunities for natural gas and NGL asset synergies in the Anadarko and Ark-La-Tex basins once ET closes the deal. (ET), (ENBL)
    • Propane markets were heating up even ahead of the latest Arctic freeze gripping the Central U.S., a function of higher exports and demand as many businesses across the U.S. turn to alternative methods to keep people warm amid indoor gathering restrictions.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/17/2021

    • Rolling Blackouts, Price Spikes Roil Energy Markets on Record Cold: Shortages and price spikes hit Texas and the Midcontinent as energy systems failed to cope with extreme cold weather, a failure due in part to wellhead freeze-offs that sent spot gas prices soaring.
    • Deep Freeze Cuts Anadarko Gas Supplies 60%+: Freezing weather in the Anadarko Basin has slashed gas delivery by up to 63% and sent gas prices surging to $300+ at some regional hubs, a development that could benefit midstream with exposure to percent-ofproceeds (POP) contracts and gas marketing businesses.
    • There’s a New Cowboy in Town: ExxonMobil (XOM/XTO) dropped its New Mexico rig count during the tumultuous 2H2020, but that’s not the only XOM news in the Delaware Basin: as part of its Poker Lake development, XOM is constructing the Cowboy Central Delivery Point, a gas processing facility with oil and NGL stabilization capability. (XOM/XTO)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/16/2021

    • Gas Prices Soar on Frigid Weather, Freeze-offs: Spot natural gas prices soared Friday as a massive Artic cold front pushed southward through the Central U.S., sending demand skyward as supplies became scarce in the frigid cold.
    • Wink to Webster Tariff Points to Heated Permian Competition: The Wink to Webster (W2W) pipeline is offering the lowest current contracted crude egress rate out of the Permian, according to newly posted pipeline tariffs, reflecting heated competition among major pipelines to move crude oil out of the basin to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/12/2021

    • Winter Chill Lights a Fire Under Natural Gas Markets: A potentially record-breaking Arctic cold front is poised to salvage the winter for natural gas producers and lend support to East Daley’s call for 2021 Henry Hub prices near $3/MMBtu, a boost for midstream names levered to natural gas development.
    • Midstream Activity Tracker: Rigs Hold Steady for Jan. 31 Week: We publish our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT) each week to update clients on the most recent U.S. rig activity in each of the major basins. We released this week’s MAT on Feb. 10.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/11/2021

    • Private vs Public Permian Rig Growth: Private E&Ps have returned rigs back to the Permian Basin at a faster rate than public operators as the basin recovers from the low of 116 average rigs for the week of August 2, 2020.
    • Apollo Mission: MPLX Sees Permian Recovery and Growth Opportunities: In MPLX’s 4Q2020 earnings call, management reported 438 MMcf/d gathered on its West Texas system, driving utilization to 73%. This marked a swifter recovery from 2020’s 3Q lows than we had anticipated, as reported numbers came 9% above East Daley’s system estimate and point to a potential need for system expansions.
    • Watch out for East Daley’s New Webinar on REX Pipeline: East Daley will host our next webinar, “A Rocky Road for Rockies Express Pipeline,” for clients on Thursday, Feb. 11.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/10/2021

    • DAPL’s Never-Ending Hangover: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) requested an additional two months to determine if and how the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) should operate until its court-ordered Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) review is completed, putting the pipeline’s future operations back in doubt. (USACE), (DAPL), (EIS)
    • East Daley is Live on Bloomberg: East Daley’s midstream energy data and analysis are now available through the Bloomberg Terminal.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/09/2021

    • Chevron Bids to Roll Up Noble Midstream: Chevron (CVX) made a no-premium offer to buy Noble Midstream Partners (NBLX), clarifying the supermajor’s plans for the midstream unit following its acquisition of Noble Energy in October. (CVX), (NBLX)
    • 4Q20 Earnings Reports Roll In: Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) and MPLX (MPLX) (covered by East Daley) have reported 4Q20 earnings. Our 4Q20 Post-Call Board Reports for EPD, KMI, MMP, and MPLX are now available. Please log in to access the reports included in your subscription or contact sales@eastdaley.com for more information. Tickers: (EPD), (KMI), (MMP), (MPLX)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/08/2021

    • Tacos al Carbon, Please: MPLX’s (MPLX) Tex NewMex Pipeline stands to benefit from a decision by parent company Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to permanently shutter its Gallup refinery, providing transit for oil supplies in the San Juan and Paradox basins that were previously refined locally. (MPLX), (MPC)
    • Enable Midstream on the Gulf Run: Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) is capitalizing on future growth in the Ark-La-Tex through higher contracting and its new Gulf Run gas pipeline project. (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/05/2021

    • It’s Brutal in the Bakken: Freezing weather in the Midwest brought Williston Basin gas residue samples down at the end of January, and we expect volumes to continue to decline with more cold weather in February.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/04/2021

    • Leidy South Approval Gives Lift to Williams, Northeast Producers: On Jan. 29 Williams (WMB) gained approval to construct a 3.5-mile section of the Leidy South expansion on its Transcontinental (Transco) pipeline, a project that will increase downstream capacity for Marcellus producers and add runway for volume growth on midstream gathering systems in the northeastern Pennsylvania Marcellus sub-basin, including those owned by WMB. (WMB), (TRANSCO)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/03/2021

    • NE Egress Capacity Crunch Looms Without MVP: Capacity limitations on Northeast (NE) gas appear on the horizon, and the potential absence of Equitrans Midstream (ETRN’s) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) might only make matters worse nationwide, driving up gas prices. (NE), (ETRN), (MVP)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/02/2021

    • Midstream Implications of Surge Energy’s $420 MM Grenadier Purchase: Surge Energy bought $420 million worth of Permian assets from Grenadier Energy Partners II (GEP II), the company announced Sunday (Jan. 31). The deal brings potential upside for midstream companies with exposure to the two companies including DCP Midstream (DCP), EnLink (ENLC), and privately held West Texas Gas. Targa’s (TRGP) dominant role in processing legacy Surge volumes could benefit from a healthier entity, but might also lose out if capex shifts to the acquired acreage. (GEP II), (DCP), (ENLC), (TRGP)
    • Repsol Sees Declines on Northeast PA Gas System: Marcellus gas recovery is in steady decline on the REPPY-Repsol gathering system in northeastern Pennsylvania, losing market share to competing producers and midstream systems in the Northeast Pennsylvania sub-region.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/01/2021

    • More Valuable than Toilet Paper in 2020: Producers in 2020 were stockpiling drilling permits ahead of the incoming Biden administration, a newly valuable commodity following Biden’s signing last Wednesday (Jan. 27) of an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands. A large inventory of permits should help alleviate near-term risk to activity and midstream volumes resulting from a moratorium or further limits.
    • Crestwood is Banking on the Bakken: Crestwood Equity Partners (CEQP) relies heavily on its Arrow system in the Bakken to drive its revenue, and during 2H2020 CEQP reported record volumes on the system. East Daley is expecting volumes on Arrow to continue to rise in 2021. (CEQP)
    • November Crude Production Up M-o-M: The U.S. Energy Information Administration updated its 2020 crude production data Friday (Jan. 29) to include November 2020 volumes.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
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    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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February 2021

  • The Daley Note 2/26/2021

    • Newer, lower-cost pipelines and cheap expansion projects have overwhelmed the Permian, North America’s biggest oil market, and disrupted fee-for-service revenues of the legacy operators. Recent higher WTI prices however point to higher production forecasts than we previously expected, somewhat brightening the outlook for Permian egress pipelines.
    •  U.S. natural gas storage posted the second-largest withdrawal on record last week, and the largest ever in the South-Central producing region, amid a bitter Arctic front that has erased a persistent storage overhang and tightened the 2021 gas market.
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET) (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/25/2021

    • In our total rig allocation to acreage serviced by U.S. and Canadian gatherers and processors (G&P), we tally 142 rigs (26% of 545 assigned) working in territory serviced by private midstream companies. (G&P)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/24/2021

    • There are only two active rigs in the Piceance Basin and one active rig in the Green River Basin, operated by Jonah Energy and Caerus Oil & Gas. East Daley models two of the three active rigs in the two basins to be on the Meeker and Pioneer gathering and processing (G&P) systems owned by Enterprise Products (EPD). (G&P), (EPD)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET),(ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/23/2021

    • Gas Production Recovering From Freeze-offs
    • East Daley Webinar on Energy Transfer-Enable Midstream Acquisition
    • Bills Come Due Following Gas and Power Price Spikes
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/22/2021

    • LNG feedgas deliveries plunged this week as frigid temperatures and electrical outages disrupted service at several terminals. We have seen delivery volumes recover steadily in the last three days, but totals are still nearly half what they were ahead of the freeze.
    • Power is being restored across Texas while gas prices fell from historic highs as the state begins to thaw from emergency conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/19/2021

    • An unprecedented ban on exports from Texas disrupted natural gas markets Thursday as the state’s energy infrastructure copes with a fifth day of extreme winter weather conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • Higher oil prices combined with new uncertainties around leasing on federal lands stand to benefit Western Midstream (WES), which is seeing rising drilling on its gathering and processing (G&P) system in the Delaware Basin. (WES), (G&P)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/18/2021

    • Energy Transfer (ET) will acquire Enable Midstream (ENBL) in an all-equity deal valued at ~$7.2 billion, a tieup at a reasonable multiple (7.0x EBITDA) that creates several opportunities for natural gas and NGL asset synergies in the Anadarko and Ark-La-Tex basins once ET closes the deal. (ET), (ENBL)
    • Propane markets were heating up even ahead of the latest Arctic freeze gripping the Central U.S., a function of higher exports and demand as many businesses across the U.S. turn to alternative methods to keep people warm amid indoor gathering restrictions.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/17/2021

    • Rolling Blackouts, Price Spikes Roil Energy Markets on Record Cold: Shortages and price spikes hit Texas and the Midcontinent as energy systems failed to cope with extreme cold weather, a failure due in part to wellhead freeze-offs that sent spot gas prices soaring.
    • Deep Freeze Cuts Anadarko Gas Supplies 60%+: Freezing weather in the Anadarko Basin has slashed gas delivery by up to 63% and sent gas prices surging to $300+ at some regional hubs, a development that could benefit midstream with exposure to percent-ofproceeds (POP) contracts and gas marketing businesses.
    • There’s a New Cowboy in Town: ExxonMobil (XOM/XTO) dropped its New Mexico rig count during the tumultuous 2H2020, but that’s not the only XOM news in the Delaware Basin: as part of its Poker Lake development, XOM is constructing the Cowboy Central Delivery Point, a gas processing facility with oil and NGL stabilization capability. (XOM/XTO)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/16/2021

    • Gas Prices Soar on Frigid Weather, Freeze-offs: Spot natural gas prices soared Friday as a massive Artic cold front pushed southward through the Central U.S., sending demand skyward as supplies became scarce in the frigid cold.
    • Wink to Webster Tariff Points to Heated Permian Competition: The Wink to Webster (W2W) pipeline is offering the lowest current contracted crude egress rate out of the Permian, according to newly posted pipeline tariffs, reflecting heated competition among major pipelines to move crude oil out of the basin to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/12/2021

    • Winter Chill Lights a Fire Under Natural Gas Markets: A potentially record-breaking Arctic cold front is poised to salvage the winter for natural gas producers and lend support to East Daley’s call for 2021 Henry Hub prices near $3/MMBtu, a boost for midstream names levered to natural gas development.
    • Midstream Activity Tracker: Rigs Hold Steady for Jan. 31 Week: We publish our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT) each week to update clients on the most recent U.S. rig activity in each of the major basins. We released this week’s MAT on Feb. 10.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/11/2021

    • Private vs Public Permian Rig Growth: Private E&Ps have returned rigs back to the Permian Basin at a faster rate than public operators as the basin recovers from the low of 116 average rigs for the week of August 2, 2020.
    • Apollo Mission: MPLX Sees Permian Recovery and Growth Opportunities: In MPLX’s 4Q2020 earnings call, management reported 438 MMcf/d gathered on its West Texas system, driving utilization to 73%. This marked a swifter recovery from 2020’s 3Q lows than we had anticipated, as reported numbers came 9% above East Daley’s system estimate and point to a potential need for system expansions.
    • Watch out for East Daley’s New Webinar on REX Pipeline: East Daley will host our next webinar, “A Rocky Road for Rockies Express Pipeline,” for clients on Thursday, Feb. 11.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/10/2021

    • DAPL’s Never-Ending Hangover: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) requested an additional two months to determine if and how the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) should operate until its court-ordered Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) review is completed, putting the pipeline’s future operations back in doubt. (USACE), (DAPL), (EIS)
    • East Daley is Live on Bloomberg: East Daley’s midstream energy data and analysis are now available through the Bloomberg Terminal.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/09/2021

    • Chevron Bids to Roll Up Noble Midstream: Chevron (CVX) made a no-premium offer to buy Noble Midstream Partners (NBLX), clarifying the supermajor’s plans for the midstream unit following its acquisition of Noble Energy in October. (CVX), (NBLX)
    • 4Q20 Earnings Reports Roll In: Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) and MPLX (MPLX) (covered by East Daley) have reported 4Q20 earnings. Our 4Q20 Post-Call Board Reports for EPD, KMI, MMP, and MPLX are now available. Please log in to access the reports included in your subscription or contact sales@eastdaley.com for more information. Tickers: (EPD), (KMI), (MMP), (MPLX)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/08/2021

    • Tacos al Carbon, Please: MPLX’s (MPLX) Tex NewMex Pipeline stands to benefit from a decision by parent company Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to permanently shutter its Gallup refinery, providing transit for oil supplies in the San Juan and Paradox basins that were previously refined locally. (MPLX), (MPC)
    • Enable Midstream on the Gulf Run: Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) is capitalizing on future growth in the Ark-La-Tex through higher contracting and its new Gulf Run gas pipeline project. (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/05/2021

    • It’s Brutal in the Bakken: Freezing weather in the Midwest brought Williston Basin gas residue samples down at the end of January, and we expect volumes to continue to decline with more cold weather in February.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/04/2021

    • Leidy South Approval Gives Lift to Williams, Northeast Producers: On Jan. 29 Williams (WMB) gained approval to construct a 3.5-mile section of the Leidy South expansion on its Transcontinental (Transco) pipeline, a project that will increase downstream capacity for Marcellus producers and add runway for volume growth on midstream gathering systems in the northeastern Pennsylvania Marcellus sub-basin, including those owned by WMB. (WMB), (TRANSCO)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/03/2021

    • NE Egress Capacity Crunch Looms Without MVP: Capacity limitations on Northeast (NE) gas appear on the horizon, and the potential absence of Equitrans Midstream (ETRN’s) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) might only make matters worse nationwide, driving up gas prices. (NE), (ETRN), (MVP)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/02/2021

    • Midstream Implications of Surge Energy’s $420 MM Grenadier Purchase: Surge Energy bought $420 million worth of Permian assets from Grenadier Energy Partners II (GEP II), the company announced Sunday (Jan. 31). The deal brings potential upside for midstream companies with exposure to the two companies including DCP Midstream (DCP), EnLink (ENLC), and privately held West Texas Gas. Targa’s (TRGP) dominant role in processing legacy Surge volumes could benefit from a healthier entity, but might also lose out if capex shifts to the acquired acreage. (GEP II), (DCP), (ENLC), (TRGP)
    • Repsol Sees Declines on Northeast PA Gas System: Marcellus gas recovery is in steady decline on the REPPY-Repsol gathering system in northeastern Pennsylvania, losing market share to competing producers and midstream systems in the Northeast Pennsylvania sub-region.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/01/2021

    • More Valuable than Toilet Paper in 2020: Producers in 2020 were stockpiling drilling permits ahead of the incoming Biden administration, a newly valuable commodity following Biden’s signing last Wednesday (Jan. 27) of an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands. A large inventory of permits should help alleviate near-term risk to activity and midstream volumes resulting from a moratorium or further limits.
    • Crestwood is Banking on the Bakken: Crestwood Equity Partners (CEQP) relies heavily on its Arrow system in the Bakken to drive its revenue, and during 2H2020 CEQP reported record volumes on the system. East Daley is expecting volumes on Arrow to continue to rise in 2021. (CEQP)
    • November Crude Production Up M-o-M: The U.S. Energy Information Administration updated its 2020 crude production data Friday (Jan. 29) to include November 2020 volumes.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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February 2021

  • The Daley Note 2/26/2021

    • Newer, lower-cost pipelines and cheap expansion projects have overwhelmed the Permian, North America’s biggest oil market, and disrupted fee-for-service revenues of the legacy operators. Recent higher WTI prices however point to higher production forecasts than we previously expected, somewhat brightening the outlook for Permian egress pipelines.
    •  U.S. natural gas storage posted the second-largest withdrawal on record last week, and the largest ever in the South-Central producing region, amid a bitter Arctic front that has erased a persistent storage overhang and tightened the 2021 gas market.
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET) (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/25/2021

    • In our total rig allocation to acreage serviced by U.S. and Canadian gatherers and processors (G&P), we tally 142 rigs (26% of 545 assigned) working in territory serviced by private midstream companies. (G&P)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/24/2021

    • There are only two active rigs in the Piceance Basin and one active rig in the Green River Basin, operated by Jonah Energy and Caerus Oil & Gas. East Daley models two of the three active rigs in the two basins to be on the Meeker and Pioneer gathering and processing (G&P) systems owned by Enterprise Products (EPD). (G&P), (EPD)
    • Analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET),(ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/23/2021

    • Gas Production Recovering From Freeze-offs
    • East Daley Webinar on Energy Transfer-Enable Midstream Acquisition
    • Bills Come Due Following Gas and Power Price Spikes
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/22/2021

    • LNG feedgas deliveries plunged this week as frigid temperatures and electrical outages disrupted service at several terminals. We have seen delivery volumes recover steadily in the last three days, but totals are still nearly half what they were ahead of the freeze.
    • Power is being restored across Texas while gas prices fell from historic highs as the state begins to thaw from emergency conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/19/2021

    • An unprecedented ban on exports from Texas disrupted natural gas markets Thursday as the state’s energy infrastructure copes with a fifth day of extreme winter weather conditions.
    • Leading analysts from East Daley’s capital and commodities teams hosted a fireside chat-style webinar Thursday afternoon to discuss midstream impacts of Energy Transfer’s (ET) $7.2 billion equity acquisition of Enable Midstream (ENBL). (ET), (ENBL)
    • Higher oil prices combined with new uncertainties around leasing on federal lands stand to benefit Western Midstream (WES), which is seeing rising drilling on its gathering and processing (G&P) system in the Delaware Basin. (WES), (G&P)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/18/2021

    • Energy Transfer (ET) will acquire Enable Midstream (ENBL) in an all-equity deal valued at ~$7.2 billion, a tieup at a reasonable multiple (7.0x EBITDA) that creates several opportunities for natural gas and NGL asset synergies in the Anadarko and Ark-La-Tex basins once ET closes the deal. (ET), (ENBL)
    • Propane markets were heating up even ahead of the latest Arctic freeze gripping the Central U.S., a function of higher exports and demand as many businesses across the U.S. turn to alternative methods to keep people warm amid indoor gathering restrictions.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/17/2021

    • Rolling Blackouts, Price Spikes Roil Energy Markets on Record Cold: Shortages and price spikes hit Texas and the Midcontinent as energy systems failed to cope with extreme cold weather, a failure due in part to wellhead freeze-offs that sent spot gas prices soaring.
    • Deep Freeze Cuts Anadarko Gas Supplies 60%+: Freezing weather in the Anadarko Basin has slashed gas delivery by up to 63% and sent gas prices surging to $300+ at some regional hubs, a development that could benefit midstream with exposure to percent-ofproceeds (POP) contracts and gas marketing businesses.
    • There’s a New Cowboy in Town: ExxonMobil (XOM/XTO) dropped its New Mexico rig count during the tumultuous 2H2020, but that’s not the only XOM news in the Delaware Basin: as part of its Poker Lake development, XOM is constructing the Cowboy Central Delivery Point, a gas processing facility with oil and NGL stabilization capability. (XOM/XTO)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/16/2021

    • Gas Prices Soar on Frigid Weather, Freeze-offs: Spot natural gas prices soared Friday as a massive Artic cold front pushed southward through the Central U.S., sending demand skyward as supplies became scarce in the frigid cold.
    • Wink to Webster Tariff Points to Heated Permian Competition: The Wink to Webster (W2W) pipeline is offering the lowest current contracted crude egress rate out of the Permian, according to newly posted pipeline tariffs, reflecting heated competition among major pipelines to move crude oil out of the basin to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/12/2021

    • Winter Chill Lights a Fire Under Natural Gas Markets: A potentially record-breaking Arctic cold front is poised to salvage the winter for natural gas producers and lend support to East Daley’s call for 2021 Henry Hub prices near $3/MMBtu, a boost for midstream names levered to natural gas development.
    • Midstream Activity Tracker: Rigs Hold Steady for Jan. 31 Week: We publish our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT) each week to update clients on the most recent U.S. rig activity in each of the major basins. We released this week’s MAT on Feb. 10.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/11/2021

    • Private vs Public Permian Rig Growth: Private E&Ps have returned rigs back to the Permian Basin at a faster rate than public operators as the basin recovers from the low of 116 average rigs for the week of August 2, 2020.
    • Apollo Mission: MPLX Sees Permian Recovery and Growth Opportunities: In MPLX’s 4Q2020 earnings call, management reported 438 MMcf/d gathered on its West Texas system, driving utilization to 73%. This marked a swifter recovery from 2020’s 3Q lows than we had anticipated, as reported numbers came 9% above East Daley’s system estimate and point to a potential need for system expansions.
    • Watch out for East Daley’s New Webinar on REX Pipeline: East Daley will host our next webinar, “A Rocky Road for Rockies Express Pipeline,” for clients on Thursday, Feb. 11.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/10/2021

    • DAPL’s Never-Ending Hangover: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) requested an additional two months to determine if and how the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) should operate until its court-ordered Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) review is completed, putting the pipeline’s future operations back in doubt. (USACE), (DAPL), (EIS)
    • East Daley is Live on Bloomberg: East Daley’s midstream energy data and analysis are now available through the Bloomberg Terminal.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/09/2021

    • Chevron Bids to Roll Up Noble Midstream: Chevron (CVX) made a no-premium offer to buy Noble Midstream Partners (NBLX), clarifying the supermajor’s plans for the midstream unit following its acquisition of Noble Energy in October. (CVX), (NBLX)
    • 4Q20 Earnings Reports Roll In: Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) and MPLX (MPLX) (covered by East Daley) have reported 4Q20 earnings. Our 4Q20 Post-Call Board Reports for EPD, KMI, MMP, and MPLX are now available. Please log in to access the reports included in your subscription or contact sales@eastdaley.com for more information. Tickers: (EPD), (KMI), (MMP), (MPLX)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/08/2021

    • Tacos al Carbon, Please: MPLX’s (MPLX) Tex NewMex Pipeline stands to benefit from a decision by parent company Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to permanently shutter its Gallup refinery, providing transit for oil supplies in the San Juan and Paradox basins that were previously refined locally. (MPLX), (MPC)
    • Enable Midstream on the Gulf Run: Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) is capitalizing on future growth in the Ark-La-Tex through higher contracting and its new Gulf Run gas pipeline project. (ENBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/05/2021

    • It’s Brutal in the Bakken: Freezing weather in the Midwest brought Williston Basin gas residue samples down at the end of January, and we expect volumes to continue to decline with more cold weather in February.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/04/2021

    • Leidy South Approval Gives Lift to Williams, Northeast Producers: On Jan. 29 Williams (WMB) gained approval to construct a 3.5-mile section of the Leidy South expansion on its Transcontinental (Transco) pipeline, a project that will increase downstream capacity for Marcellus producers and add runway for volume growth on midstream gathering systems in the northeastern Pennsylvania Marcellus sub-basin, including those owned by WMB. (WMB), (TRANSCO)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/03/2021

    • NE Egress Capacity Crunch Looms Without MVP: Capacity limitations on Northeast (NE) gas appear on the horizon, and the potential absence of Equitrans Midstream (ETRN’s) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) might only make matters worse nationwide, driving up gas prices. (NE), (ETRN), (MVP)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/02/2021

    • Midstream Implications of Surge Energy’s $420 MM Grenadier Purchase: Surge Energy bought $420 million worth of Permian assets from Grenadier Energy Partners II (GEP II), the company announced Sunday (Jan. 31). The deal brings potential upside for midstream companies with exposure to the two companies including DCP Midstream (DCP), EnLink (ENLC), and privately held West Texas Gas. Targa’s (TRGP) dominant role in processing legacy Surge volumes could benefit from a healthier entity, but might also lose out if capex shifts to the acquired acreage. (GEP II), (DCP), (ENLC), (TRGP)
    • Repsol Sees Declines on Northeast PA Gas System: Marcellus gas recovery is in steady decline on the REPPY-Repsol gathering system in northeastern Pennsylvania, losing market share to competing producers and midstream systems in the Northeast Pennsylvania sub-region.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 2/01/2021

    • More Valuable than Toilet Paper in 2020: Producers in 2020 were stockpiling drilling permits ahead of the incoming Biden administration, a newly valuable commodity following Biden’s signing last Wednesday (Jan. 27) of an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands. A large inventory of permits should help alleviate near-term risk to activity and midstream volumes resulting from a moratorium or further limits.
    • Crestwood is Banking on the Bakken: Crestwood Equity Partners (CEQP) relies heavily on its Arrow system in the Bakken to drive its revenue, and during 2H2020 CEQP reported record volumes on the system. East Daley is expecting volumes on Arrow to continue to rise in 2021. (CEQP)
    • November Crude Production Up M-o-M: The U.S. Energy Information Administration updated its 2020 crude production data Friday (Jan. 29) to include November 2020 volumes.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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January 2021

  • The Daley Note 1/29/2021

    • Biden Imposes Federal Land Drilling Moratorium: President Joe Biden on Wednesday (Jan. 27) signed an Executive Order imposing a new leasing moratorium on federal lands, one among an array of executive actions intended to tackle climate change by the new administration.
    • New Biden BOEM Creates Risk for Offshore Midstream: The Biden administration’s freeze on new federal leases creates long-term risk for several midstream companies that service offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) projects, in particular Shell Midstream (SHLX) and Genesis Energy (GEL). (SHLX), (GEL)
    • A New Name in the Bakken: Private Outrigger Energy II LLC recently announced it has finished construction of the Bill Sanderson gas processing plant in the Williston Basin. The project is anchored by a long-term producer agreement that could draw business away from a handful of competing midstream gas processors, including ONEOK (OKE). (OKE)
    • East Daley’s January 2021 Production & Constraint Forecasts Available: New Production & Constraint Forecast (PCF) reports and data sets for the following basins are now available for East Daley clients: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and Williston. (PCF)
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  • The Daley Note 1/28/2021

    • Crude Inventories Continue to Draw Down; Constructive for Oil prices: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released weekly crude inventory data Wednesday morning (Jan. 27) showing a large oil draw well above market expectations, a bullish sign for crude oil prices as inventories, although still elevated, dropped back into the comfortable five-year range (graph below).
    • MPLX Sure Would (Sherwood) Like An Expansion: MPLX (MPLX) management said in its 3Q20 earnings call that the much-needed 200 MMcf/d Smithburg 1 expansion to the Sherwood JV processing complex in the SW Marcellus – Utica is complete and awaiting volumes from Antero Resources (AR) to begin service. (MPLX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/27/2021

    • DAPL Ruling A Mixed Bag for Energy Transfer: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline lost a battle Tuesday as a D.C. circuit court upheld a lower court’s decision to revoke an environmental permit the courts say was issued unlawfully. The appeals court did however reverse the district court’s ruling that ET must shut down the pipeline and drain it of oil, allowing DAPL to remain open for business for the near future. (ET)
    • Equitrans Keeps YE2021 Target for MVP Despite Setbacks: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) maintained its YE2021 in-service expectations for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in an 8-K update on Tuesday despite recent regulatory setbacks for the project. (ETRN), (MVP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/26/2021

    • Associated Gas Rises to the Top: Midstream companies in our coverage group will report 4Q20 earnings in the coming month. We expect a few to ride higher WTI and increased oil and associated gas volumes into earnings beats (versus consensus) this quarter.
    •  Enerplus-Bruin Acquisition Comes with Midstream Upside: Enerplus (ERF) said today it will acquire Williston Basin operator Bruin E&P for $465 million in cash, a potentially positive development for midstream companies Crestwood Equity (CEQP), Targa Resources (TRGP), and ONEOK (OKE) that service the two E&Ps in the basin. We also see Summit Midstream’s (SMLP) liquids gathering system potentially benefitting from the acquisition. (ERF), (CEQP), (TRGP), (OKE), (SMLP)
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  • The Daley Note 1/22/2021

    •  Satellite Now in Orbit: Energy Transfer (ET) announced it loaded the first Very Large Ethane Carrier (VLEC) from its recently completed Orbit ethane export terminal in Nederland, TX, which East Daley estimates will generate an annual $100 million of EBITDA. This VLEC announcement highlights the first-mover advantage ET has in this space. (ET), (VLEC)
    • Biden’s Freeze on Federal Leasing Sends Chill Through Midstream: Day Two of the Biden administration brought new stress to the oil patch as the newly elected president followed through on plans to halt new drilling on federal lands, sending many oil and gas shares lower.
    • Wells Ranch Crude Needs Higher WTI: Noble Midstream (NBLX) announced a new dedication agreement with Chevron (CVX) on Jan. 8 to provide oil transportation services from its Wells Ranch development area in the DJ Basin. Crude produced on the dedicated acreage will be gathered by NBLX’s existing Wells Ranch infrastructure on a fee-for-service basis. (NBLX), (CVX)
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  • The Daley Note 1/21/2021

    • Out with the KXL, in with the New: Newly inaugurated President Joe Biden made good on his promise to effectively kill TC Energy’s (TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline on his first afternoon in office today, one of several environmental actions that point to more climate scrutiny ahead for midstream projects. (TRP)
    • GoM Volume Recovery on Tap for WMB: Volumes on Williams’ (WMB) gathering and processing (G&P) assets in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are recovering to pre-Covid levels so far in 1Q21 after facing significant disruptions from weather and price-related curtailments during 2020. (WMB), (G&P)
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  • The Daley Note 1/20/2021

    • FERC Vote Sets Back Mountain Valley Pipeline: Equitrans Midstream’s (ETRN) Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) took another regulatory blow this week as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to approve the project’s latest batch of proposed water crossings, sending ETRN shares tumbling while dimming the outlook for Northeast market expansion. (ETRN), (MVP), (FERC)
    • EnLink Rides Seasonal Swing in Louisiana: EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) Louisiana segment typically generates higher seasonal EBITDA in the fourth quarter than in other quarters, mainly because of seasonal supply and demand factors. We expect to see this trend repeat in 4Q20. (ENLC)
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  • The Daley Note 1/15/2021

    • Norwegians Backing out of Bakken: Equinor ASA (EQNR) could soon be out of the Bakken field in the States, according to reports from Norwegian media. We expect that a potential new buyer for Equinor assets has positive midstream implications for a handful of U.S. companies. (EQNR)
    • Pioneer-Parsley Makes it Official: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) completed its ~$4.5 billion purchase of Parsley Energy (PE) this week, a deal announced in Oct. 2020 amid the wave of upstream Permian consolidation that should benefit several midstream companies. (PXD), (PE)
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  • The Daley Note 1/14/2021

    • Summit Scales New Peak on Double E Pipeline Approval: Summit Midstream (SMLP) shares surged up to 52% today as investors cheered a key regulatory approval that will allow construction to begin on its 1.35 Bcf/d Double E natural gas pipeline project in the Permian Basin. (SMLP)
    • Last Rig Standing in Green River Basin: There is only one rig active in the Green River Basin, down from five a year ago: Jonah Energy has a rig drilling wells in Sublette County, WY, which we assign to gathering owned by Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). (EPD)
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  • The Daley Note 1/13/2021

    • Bucking Horse Brings Backup: Crestwood’s Bucking Horse system in the Powder River Basin has not seen any producer activity since April 2020, yet the company is optimistic about 1Q21 gathering and processing volumes. Based on area residue receipts, East Daley believes CEQP’s expected volume increase is due to an alternative source.
    • MPLX Holds Steady in Northeast: With MPLX’s 4Q20 earnings call approaching, we expect the company to report flat to slightly lower volumes on its Northeast gathering and processing assets vs. 3Q20 based on our sample of residue gas deliveries to interstate pipelines.
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  • The Daley Note 1/12/2021

    • OXY’s Return to Permian Boosts Midstream Outlook: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is ramping up its drilling in the Permian, a bright development for Western Midstream’s (WES) and Enterprise Products’ (EPD) prospects in 2021. (OXY), (WES), (EPD)
    • Zydeco Contracting Troubles: Shell Midstream’s (SHLX) Zydeco Pipeline faced re-contracting headwinds before macro-level demand destruction hit midstream companies in 2020, challenges demonstrated by recent contract expirations and lost business for the pipeline. (SHLX), 
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  • The Daley Note 1/7/2021

    • All Eyes on Natural Gas in Asia: Global LNG markets and Asian LNG prices in particular have rallied this winter, reinforcing our view that U.S. LNG exports will gain pace in 2021 and remain a constructive driver for U.S. natural gas price and demand.
    • Back from the Deferred: In 1H2020 amidst volatility in commodity markets and uncertainty in the demand outlook, midstream companies canceled and/or deferred projects to preserve cash flow and to protect stakeholders.
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  • The Daley Note 1/6/2021

    • Hitting the Permian Highway: Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it began full service on the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on Jan. 1, boosting egress capacity by 2.1 Bcf/d out of the Permian and helping to tighten natural gas price spreads to the Gulf Coast. o The 430-mile PHP moves natural gas from the Waha hub in West Texas to Katy, outside Houston, where gas can be moved to other Gulf Coast markets or exported to Mexico. (MKI)(PHP)
    • (Light) Snow in the Permian: Our Permian gas production sample is down 390 MMcf/d, or 9%, so far in January 2021 vs. the last week of December 2020 after a snowstorm moved through West Texas last week and caused freeze-offs that curtailed production.
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  • The Daley Note 1/5/2021

    • The Beast of the (Mariner) East: A judge at the Pennsylvania Environmental Hearing Board ruled that Energy Transfer (ET) does not have to re-route its Mariner East 2 (ME2) NGL pipeline, a small legal victory for ET that will allow the company to stick with its 2Q2021 expected completion date for now. (ET), (ME2)
    • Javelina Wine Mixer: Howard Energy Partners (HEP) executed an agreement to purchase the Javelina processing plant from MPLX, HEP announced last week. The acquisition is expected to close in early 2021. (HEP)
    • Bring Back the Rigs: U.S. rigs have consistently risen at a rate of ~8.5 rigs/week since September 2020. The notable basins that have gained rigs include the Permian, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and DJ, which have gained an average of 4.9, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.7 rigs per week, respectively.
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December 2020

  • The Daley Note 12/14/2020

    • U.S. Forest Service Gives Nod to MVP Project: Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) received a critical environmental review for one of the final unbuilt segments of its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), an important step for ETRN to meet revised start-up in 2H2021 for the long-delayed MVP project. (ETRN), (MVP)
    • EP Energy Exits the Southern Midland Basin: EP Energy (EPE) announced December 11 the divestiture of its southern Midland Basin acreage to an undisclosed buyer, a deal that may inject new investment into acreage serviced by West Texas Gas, Targa Resources (TRGP), and DCP Midstream (DCP). EPE expects the deal to close in early 1Q2021. (EPE), (TRGP), (DCP)
    • SD Sells North Park Basin Assets: SandRidge Energy (SD) announced on December 14 it will sell its North Park Basin assets to Gondola Resources for $47 million in cash. SD has accounted for all North Park drilling activity in East Daley’s recorded history. (SD)
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  • The Daley Note 12/10/2020

    • LNG Exporters Hit New Records, Eye Profits Ahead: East Daley monitors daily pipeline deliveries feeding LNG export terminals, which on December 4 broke 11 Bcf/d for
      the first time. Average deliveries through December increased 11% from record levels of 10 Bcf/d in November
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 17 to 360 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 17 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 360, according to our Midstream
      Activity Tracker.
    • ET’s Stalled Revolution Project: Energy Transfer (ET) faces another setback expanding its G&P position in southwest Pennsylvania. The state’s
      Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is blocking the start of its 40-mile Revolution Pipeline, which would feed rich Marcellus gas to its Revolution processing plant. (ET), (DEP)
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  • The Daley Note 12/9/2020

    • TC Energy Pushes Ahead on KXL Optimism: TC Energy (TRP) made another aspirational move in its preparation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL), establishing an at-the-market equity (ATM) program to secure additional financing for KXL construction. Though the odds are long that the pipeline project will happen, the Canadian company continues to push ahead as if its permit will remain valid. (TRP) (KXL)(ATM) 
    • My Way or the Conway: Since 2018, the weighted basket price for NGLs at Conway has averaged $2.42/bbl below Mont Belvieu pricing, moving as wide as $10.95/bbl in 3Q2018. Lower Conway supply could reduce the spread, shipping demand, and volatile marketing earnings, a negative for some midstreamers.
    • NBLX Settles in at Chevron: Noble Midstream (NBLX) finished integrating into Chevron (CVX) this week following CVX’s acquisition of NBLX parent company Noble Energy (NBL) in July. NBLX, the primary midstream provider for NBL, confirmed the successful integration Monday. CVX announced its $5 billion, or $10.38/share, acquisition of NBL on July 20, 2020. (NBLX), (CVX), (NBL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/8/2020

    • KMI Provides 2021 Outlook in Line with East Daley Estimates: Kinder Morgan (KMI) today reported preliminary 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance that came in below Street consensus but was close to East Daley’s estimates. KMI guided to 2021 Adj. EBITDA of $6,800 million, which is $260 million (~3.7%) below consensus of $7,060 million as of December 7 but in line with East Daley’s 3Q2020 post-earnings model at $6,810 million. (KMI)
    • Don’t Forget the Little Guys: Large-scale egress pipelines have dominated headlines this year regarding new crude infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Yet a handful of smaller players are also making moves on the less-flashy intra-basin systems found in the Permian, such as Lotus Midstream’s newly started August Pipeline.
    • Cold Snap Smacks Oklahoma Production, Tagging OKE and ENLC Volumes: At the crux of different climactic zones in North America, Oklahoma’s temperature changes don’t surprise Sooners or East Daley Capital – we estimate that the Anadarko Basin recently experienced freezing events in late October that will impact midstream throughput for 4Q2020. (OKE) (ENCL)
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  • The Daley Note 12/7/2020

    • A Chevron Chops Its E&P Budget – Midstream Implications: Chevron (CVX) said it will slash its long-term capital and exploratory budget by ~25% to preserve its dividend amid lower oil and gas prices, a potential headwind for midstream companies including Energy Transfer (ET), DCP Midstream (DCP), and MPLX (MPLX) that gather and process for the major’s U.S. operations. (CVX, ET, DCP, MPLX)
    • East Daley’s Latest Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available: East Daley’s latest Production & Constraint Forecast reports and data sets have been updated and are now available for the following basins: Permian, Northeast, Denver-Julesburg, Powder River, Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and the Williston.
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  • The Daley Note 12/3/2020

    • But Wait, There’s More – Investors Reward Altus for New Dividend: Altus Midstream (ALTM) shares have soared following a generous dividend announcement in early November, an early and unexpected holiday gift to shareholders, though we see a potentially tight liquidity window as a result. (ALTM)
    • New Enable Contracts Point to Haynesville Upside: East Daley expects growing production next year in top-tier natural gas basins will lead to material volumes and earnings growth for certain midstream assets, a theme we highlight in our newly released 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook. Encouraging new natural gas pipeline contracts posted by Enable Midstream (ENBL) for its Line CP validate our view and suggest this uptrend may already have started in the Haynesville play.(ENBL)
    •  U.S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker.
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  • The Daley Note 12/2/2020

    • Midstream Implications of Maverick’s FourPoint Acquisition: Maverick Natural Resources on December 2 announced the acquisition of FourPoint Energy, the largest producer in the western Anadarko Basin and a potential boost for midstream providers such as ArcLight, Enable Midstream (ENBL), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) that process gas for FourPoint.
    • S. Rigs Increase by 8 to 337 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 8 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 337, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. (TGRP)
    • New Bakken Processing Nears Start-Up: Outrigger’s Bill Sanderson processing plant is scheduled to come online in the next few weeks and will provide 250 MMcf/d of new processing capacity for gas production in the Bakken play in the Williston Basin, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. The Bill Sanderson plant is backed by an agreement with ExxonMobil and will gather volumes from Williams County, ND and surrounding areas via a 70-mile gathering line.
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  • The Daley Note 12/1/2020

    • Are You Saying Ethane or Methane?: Ethane recovery should subside in 4Q2020 as an earnings driver because of a shrinking frac spread, somewhat mitigated by higher rig counts. Several midstream companies reported earnings beats in 3Q20 (vs. Bloomberg consensus) and some of the biggest beats came from vertically integrated NGL players like Targa Resources (TRGP), Energy Transfer (ET), ONEOK (OKE), and DCP Midstream (DCP).
    • Colorado is a Winter Destination for Skiers and Drillers: Just as the skiers crowd the slopes of Colorado every winter, rig activity in the Denver-Julesburg Basin is on the upswing: after rigs dropped to a low of three in July and crept up to five at the end of 3Q20, operators have increased activity in the basin, bringing the current rig count up to nine.
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November 2020

  • The Daley Note 11/30/2020

    • Colorado Setbacks with a Twist: The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) on November 23 voted to approve 2,000-foot setbacks for new oil and gas development but included several “off-ramps” that should help to mitigate the effects to E&Ps and midstream companies operating in Colorado.
    • Late Winter Drags on Gas Prices: A delayed start to the 2020-21 heating season is weighing heavily on winter gas prices, creating some risks to East Daley’s bullish 2021 natural gas price thesis and potential upside for gas-exposed midstream names.
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  • The Daley Note 11/19/2020

    • East Daley Releases 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook: East Daley’s annual Midstream Guidance Outlook report is now available. In “Fight or Flight: Taking Stock of the Midstream,” we preview the biggest trends we see ahead for commodities and midstream capital markets in 2021.
    • U.S. Rigs Increase by 11 to 317 in Latest Week: Total U.S. rigs increased by 11 in the latest week, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 317, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Continuing a bullish trend, Targa Resources is up 3.0 rigs on its Permian and Bakken systems. TRGP
    • ET’s Texas-Sized Rig Recovery: Energy Transfer saw large rig gains this past week in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and ArkLaTex basins, according to our Midstream Activity Tracker. Producers added an average of 11.2 rigs on four ET systems in one week. ET
    • MVP Construction Moves Forward on Appeals Ruling: A federal appeals court on November 18 denied a motion to stall work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), one of two legal wins Equitrans Midstream needs to finish work on the long-delayed MVP project. With only 8% left to complete, MVP’s uncertain outlook drives the fate of long-term Northeast production and price differentials. In our Northeast Production & Constraint Forecast, we model that rapid growth in regional gas production requires MVP to be in service by 2022 or the Northeast will face egress capacity constraints and structurally wider differentials. ETRN
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  • The Daley Note 11/18/2020

    • Angling for Exports: ET’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port Joins Crowded Field: Energy Transfer’s Blue Marlin Deepwater Port recently joined the ranks of three other pending applications with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration to build a deepwater port terminal to export crude oil and accommodate fully loading very large crude carriers. Despite the vast interest in expanding existing export capacity, East Daley’s Crude Hub Model models a significant overbuild in export infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ET, EPD, ENB, PSX
    • KXL Adds First Nations Investor Ahead of Biden Decision: TC Energy said a First Nations group will invest up to C$1 billion ($764 million) in its Keystone XL Pipeline, a savvy effort to curry political favor ahead of an expected decision by the incoming Biden administration on the controversial project. While the odds remain long for the project, TRP is pursuing the only viable path we see for winning political support. ENB, TRP
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  • The Daley Note 11/17/2020

    • You Boys Like Mexico?! Sempra Project to Open LNG Route for Permian Gas to Pacific: By utilizing existing assets at a relatively modest investment, the Costa Azul LNG export should boost returns for TCP’s asset while opening new markets for Permian gas. TCP
    • Go North – Northern Delaware Leads Basin Rig Recovery: Delaware Basin rig activity has rebounded nicely off August lows, particularly in the northern part of the basin, which should benefit Lucid, Targa Resources (TRGP), and MPLX with systems in the area. TRGP, MPLX
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  • The Daley Note 11/16/2020

    • Gulfport Files Chapter 11 – Midstream Counterparty Exposure: The Oklahoma City, OK-based independent is active in the Utica in the Northeast and the SCOOP play in the Midcontinent, and its bankruptcy poses recovery risks for midstream names like Intensity Midstream, Summit Midstream (SMLP) and Equitrans (ETRN). ETRN, GPOR, MPLX, SMLP, TRP
    • I.O.U. – Plains call highlights deficiency payments: Plains All American’s (PAA) recent 3Q2020 results highlight a likely theme for Permian oil egress pipes in the coming years: deficiency payments. NS, PAA
    • Ovintiv South Texas Sale: Ovintiv (OVV) is rumored to be selling its Eagle Ford acreage, which it bought in 2014, a potential driver for midstream operators. EPD, ET, MPLX, OKE, OVV, PBA
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  • The Daley Note 11/12/2020

    • OXY Targets Net-Zero Emissions: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) announced on November 10 plans to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 from the oil and gas it extracts and sells. OXY is the first U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero emissions plan, following the lead of European peers like Shell (RDS) and Total (TOT). The OXY announcement continues its prioritization of ESG initiatives, though midstream counterparties could face challenges if more U.S. operators follow. APC, EPD, OXY, RDS, TOT, TRGP, WES
    • Pioneer and Parsley Boost Targa in Permian: Targa Resources (TRGP) is ready to reap gains from recent upstream merger activity in the Permian Basin. From October 25 to November 1, Targa saw four more rigs drilling on its West Texas system in the Midland. East Daley expects Targa to be the main beneficiary in the midstream space once the PXD-PE merger closes, expected in 1Q21 (see our October 22 Snapshot, “Pioneer-Parsley: Midstream Implications of Permian Merger Mania”). In addition to their acreage overlap in the Midland, Parsley is the largest producer on TRGP’s Delaware G&P system. PE, PXD, TRGP
    • Eyeing a Rig Comeback in the Anadarko: The Anadarko Basin averaged 16 rigs in 3Q2020, a historic low, but E&Ps are returning to the basin ahead of expected higher gas prices this winter and in 2021. An average of 18 rigs drilled in October and 21 rigs in the first week of November, with operators including Continental Resources (CLR), Citizen Energy III LLC, Mewbourne Oil Co., and GBK Corp. leading the rebound. Our samples show Anadarko gas volumes increased ~12% W-o-W and by ~5% in 3Q2020. CLR, DCP, ENBL
    • LNG Exports Rise in November: Domestic LNG feedgas deliveries remain strong, with utilization averaging 95% of nameplate export capacity so far in November. Higher gas prices in Europe over $5/MMBtu have created favorable spreads for LNG exports and Sempra is closing out maintenance at its Cameron LNG facility following Hurricane Delta.
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  • The Daley Note 11/11/2020

    • EOG Strikes Gold in Dorado Gas Discovery: EOG Resources (EOG) announced last week the Dorado gas discovery in South Texas, a potential boost for future Eagle Ford drilling that could lift volumes on several gas gathering systems in the basin. EOG said Dorado is a 21 Tcf net natural gas resource located primarily in the prolific dry gas window in Webb County, TX. Since 2019, the Houston-based E&P has drilled 17 wells in the Dorado play. EOG said returns on its Dorado wells compete with its top oil prospects, and that Dorado provides an additional 1,250 net locations in the Eagle Ford Shale. The EOG discovery, if it fulfills expectations, could provide upside for midstream companies in the dry gas portion of the basin. CVX, EOG, EPD, SM, CVX, EPD, ET.
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week: Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 6.1 rigs across its Permian midstream systems. MPLX is down 3.1 rigs on its G&P systems in the Marcellus-Utica and Bakken. Energy Transfer is up 3.4 rigs on its Permian and ArkLaTex systems.
    • Quarterly Updates Available: GEL, TCP, and WES.
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  • The Daley Note 11/10/2020

    • Higher ethane recovery drove NGL production and transportation volumes in 3Q2020: DCP Midstream (DCP), Enable (ENBL), EnLink (ENLC), Enterprise (EPD), Energy Transfer (ET), and ONEOK (OKE) all reported an uptick in NGL production. Even with Hurricane Laura shutting down significant cracker capacity in September, ethane recovery and production levels remained near all-time highs. Ethane export demand grew as more international ethane crackers came online and more ethane export capacity starting along the Gulf Coast. According to the EIA, ethane exports increased 15% Y-o-Y in July and August 2020 despite widespread COVID-19 degradation. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, EPD, ET, OKE.
    • Green Shoots in the Mid-Continent – Cimarex Adds A Rig: A potential harbinger of better times to come, Cimarex Energy (XEC) began operating a rig in the STACK play of Oklahoma in late October, bringing the basin total up to 19 rigs. Our proprietary G&P Allocation Model shows XEC gas production in the STACK by multiple gatherers. DCP, ENBL, ENLC, OKE, XEC.
    • East Daley’s quarterly Post-Call Board Reports are now available for 25 companies under our Midstream coverage.
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  • The Daley Note 11/09/2020

    • Bonanza Creek-HighPoint Deal: Wild West Wedding – Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire.
    • M&A Heats Up for Liquids Storage Assets: Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. on November 8 said it entered into an agreement to sell its bulk liquids storage and handling business, International-Matex Tank Terminals to an affiliate of Riverstone Holdings LLC for ~$2.685 billion in cash and assumed debt, a sign that private equity interest in liquids storage terminals may be heating up.
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    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/06/2020

    • Trans-American Cash Flow Shrinking for TransCanada – TC Energy (TRP) reported 3Q20 earnings that beat consensus and East Daley’s estimates for the quarter by 2%. While the Keystone XL project grabs most headlines, the base Keystone pipeline drives incremental bearishness to our outlook in a $40/bbl WTI price strip. TRP
    • Northeast Constraints Lift Rover – The Rover Pipeline (owned 35% by Energy Transfer (ET) and 65% by Blackstone) has been flowing natural gas at or above nameplate capacity in recent months with spare Northeast takeaway scarce, a bullish market dynamic for the midstream pipes with unreserved capacity exiting the region. ENB, ET, KMI
    • Rig Activity Rises by 10 in Latest Week – Among midstream companies, Targa Resources (TRGP) is up 3.9 rigs across its Permian systems. DCP Midstream is down 1.7 rigs on its G&P systems in the Permian and Anadarko, and Western Gas Partners is up 1.9 on its Permian and Eagle Ford systems. DCP, TRGP, WES
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/04/2020

    • 2020 Presidential Election: What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for Midstream. ADCP, EPD, ET, PAA
    • Down-ballot Issues.BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast.ETRN
    • Spring Break for Canadian Rigs.CNQ, CVE, HUS.TO, OVV, PBA
    • DTE Midstream Spin-off. DTE
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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  • The Daley Note 11/02/2020

    • TETCO Maintenance Keeps a Lid on Northeast Prices. AR, COG, ENB, EQT, ET, KMI, RRC, TCR
    • Quick Recovery after Zeta. BP, COP, DCP, WES, XOM
    • More MVP Delays Handcuff Northeast. ETRN
    • East Daley’s October Production & Constraint Forecasts Now Available
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Prices
    • North American Crude Oil Prices
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices
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October 2020

  • The Daley Note 10/26/2020

    • Cenovus-Husky Deal: E&P Merger Mania Moves North – Cenovus Energy (CVE) announced a deal to purchase Husky Energy (HSE.TO) to create the third-largest Canadian oil producer as the wave of E&P consolidation moves north to Canada. CNQ, COP, CVE, CXO, HSE.TO, PBA, PE, PXD, SU, VSN.TO.
    • Hurricane Season Rolls on with Zeta – The 2020 hurricane season continues to loom over the offshore industry as Tropical Storm Zeta gains strength over western Caribbean waters. BP, BHP, CVX, OXY, RDS, ENB.
    • Riding out the Storms – We expect Williams (WMB) to report a slight Q-o-Q uptick in 3Q2020 earnings from its Gulf of Mexico assets despite significant storm disruptions in the quarter. WMB.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/22/2020

    • Permian Positives – We expect significant growth from EnLink’s Permian segment Q-o-Q, as interstate samples show a large increase in throughput volumes. ENLC’s Delaware G&P system interstate sample increased by 25% Q-o-Q, indicating that producers have possibly brought curtailed production back online.
    • Growing Aethon Keeps Midstream At Arm’s Length – Aethon Energy has been one of the most active drillers in the Ark-La-Tex Basin over the last few years, consistently running anywhere from 5 to 9 rigs, but publicly traded midstream companies have largely missed out on the volume upside as Aethon and its midstream subsidiaries gather ~90% of the company’s own Louisiana production.
    • North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Prices.
    • North American Crude Oil Prices.
    • North American Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/21/2020

    • Permian Merger Mania – Pioneer Resources’ (PXD) all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion continues a trend of upstream consolidation in the Permian Basin as producers seek scale to compete at lower oil prices. We examine the midstream implications. COP, CXO, ET, PE, PXD, CXO, TRGP.
    • A Waiting Game on Colorado Setbacks – In early November the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) will promulgate new drilling regulations, including potential 2,000’ setback requirements for permitting new wells, that could constrain production in the DJ Basin, a concern for DCP Midstream (DPM). DCP, OXY, PDCE, WES, XOG.
    • Rig Activity Grows by 3.4 to 332 Rigs. On the midstream side, DCP Midstream is up 5.7 rigs on its G&P systems across the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Energy Transfer LP is up 4 rigs on its G&P systems in the ArkLaTex, Eagle Ford, and Permian basins. We examine these in our Midstream Activity Tracker (MAT).
    • Key North American energy indicators and equity prices.
    • Key North American natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/20/2020

    • Pioneer-Parsley Deal: All in the Family – Pioneer Resources (PXD) announced Tuesday afternoon an agreement to acquire Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion in an all-stock transaction, a deal that Targa Resources (TRGP) and its investors should monitor closely. PXD, PE, COP, CXO, TRGP, ET.
    • Gulf of Mexico Nears Return to Normal – Our Gulf of Mexico pipeline gas sample shows volumes approaching normal levels after the active hurricane season of 2020 concludes.
    • Key North American energy indicators and midstream equity prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/19/2020

    • Concho-Phillips Merger Sealed – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Big Acquisition or Big Nothing – EOG in Play? EOG, TOT, XOM, CVX, ET, WES, EPD, MPLX,TRGP, KMI, ENLC.
    • Get It While the Getting’s Good. NM vs. TX Permian Rigs. DVN, XOM, EOG, CXO, ENLC, EPD, DCP, ET, TRGP.
    • Gulf of Mexico Almost Back to Normal.
    • Key North American Energy Indicators and Equity Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/15/2020

    • Conoco-Concho Merger Rumors – Midstream Implications. COP, CXO, EPD, ENLC, ET, PAA, TRGP, WES.
    • Flush Bakken Production Comes Full Circle. HESM, KMI, OKE, TRGP.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators and North American Midstream Prices.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices by Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/14/2020

    • Cameron LNG Recovery Sunk Again. D, LNG, SRE.
    • Eagle Ford Rigs Soar. COP, CPE, DCP, EPD, ET, KMI, MRO, PVAC, SBOW.
    • Midstream: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood – An analysis of energy Chapter 11 filings statistics.
    • Gulf Production Continues Rebound after Hurricane Delta.
    • Key Energy Indicators for North American Energy.
    • North American Midstream Universe Price and Performance Data.
    • Key North American Natural Gas Prices, Crude Oil Prices, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/13/2020

    • C2 Seesaw to drive Earnings for DPM, OKE.
    • XOG Buy-out Deal Rumored in DJ – Midstream Menagerie.
    • Gulf Operators Restore Production after Hurricane Delta.
    • Fundamental, E&P, and Midstream Calendar.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Oil, and Natural Gas Liquids Prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/12/2020

    • The Price isn’t Right – Midstream Implications of Cabot’s Curtailed Production.
    • Gulf Operators Begin Restoring Operations after Hurricane Delta.
    • A Return to Normalcy – Rebound in Gas Receipts Across Hardest Hit Basins.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Energy Calendars.
    • Key Energy Indicators.
    • North American Midstream Universe Pricing.
    • Key North American Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Pricing By Location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/08/2020

    • Cameron Comeback? D, LNG, SRE.
    • Hurricane Delta Forces More Gulf Shut-ins. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental & earnings calendars.
    • Key North American energy indicators.
    • North American midstream universe price data.
    • Key location-based data for NoAM natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/07/2020

    • Plummeting NGL recovery at the Younger plant. PBA
    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Fundamental Calendar.
    • 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar – Midstream & Upstream.
    • Price data for the North American Midstream Universe.
    • Key Energy indicators, natural gas prices, crude oil prices and natural gas liquids prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/06/2020

    • Hurricane Delta Intensifies into Category 4 Storm. BP, CVX, OXY.
    • Shelling the Upstream. RDS, CEQP, KEY, ET, PBA, WES, ENLC, NFG.
    • Company & Industry News.
    • Calendars: E&P & Midstream.
    • Key energy indicators, NoAm natural gas prices, crude oil prices and NGL prices.
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  • The Daley Note 10/05/2020

    • The CVX-NBL merger closure and midstream implications.
    • TC Energy’s offer for TC Pipelines and the rate-risk nuances.
    • The OAS bankruptcy and implications for OMP and other midstreamers.
    • The outlook for Tropical Storms Delta and Gamma.
    • The cumulative impact of storms to GoM production.
    • Corporate news.
    • Industry news.
    • E&P 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Midstream 3Q2020 Earnings Calendar.
    • Key Energy Indicators – Commodities, Spreads, Indices & Rates.
    • NoAm Midstream Universe prices.
    • Natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids prices by location.
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  • The Daley Note 10/01/2020

    • We follow up on SMLP’s recent restructuring agreement, with likely asset sales ahead. SMLP, WLL.
    • We talk cash flows on the Milk River-Empress exchange deal. PAA, IPL.
    • We tease today’s in-depth Snapshot report on the midstream implications of the Devon-WPX merger. DVN, WPX.
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